Hello MushinSeeker: You said you wanted to know “what pairs to avoid”. So here's a heads up from Oanda that just came in today. From: Oanda Wednesday, January 21, 2015 Subject: URGENT: CHF, SEK, NOK MARGIN CHANGE ... If you trade CHF, SEK, NOK action may be required. Effective 6:00 PM EST, January 22, 2015, the National Futures Association (NFA) has imposed a requirement that forex brokerages reduce the available leverage on certain currencies due to the extraordinary market conditions. As directed by the NFA, OANDA will be changing margin requirements for 3 currencies. The affected currencies are the Swiss Franc, Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone. Currency Previous Margin Requirement New Margin Requirement Swiss Franc (CHF) 2% 5% Swedish Krona (SEK) 2% 3% Norwegian Krone (NOK) 2% 3% As a result of this change, accounts with positions in these currencies will show a reduction of margin available at 5:00 PM EST on January 22, 2015. If this margin available falls below the 50% closeout margin specified in your customer account, all open positions in your account will be immediately closed. IF YOU TRADE THESE PAIRS, we strongly encourage you to review your account immediately and close sufficient positions by 5:00 PM EST on January 22, 2015 to ensure you have sufficient margin available to avoid closeout of all your positions. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you. ... Thank you for trading with OANDA. Kind Regards, The OANDA Client Experience Team
Hello Chris Mac: Congratulations on your Swiss PEG insights. I am curious on how you formulated a trade for that event. Did you just place a EURCHF sell stop order perhaps ? How exactly did you take advantage of such an event if you don't mind saying ?
Hello Nobody: Some one told me nobody knows the future. So how high do you think gold will go in the next 12 months ? I must be going crazy. I'm actually asking nobody for help. Usually I just talk to myself.
Hello Anubis, Well, with the EURCHF, I made nothing. Nada. Zero. 1 I am not a forex trader, I am a multi-asset player, essentially equities, bonds and derivatives. 2 I knew that SNB was cooked. I knew it was a question of weeks rather than months. But I had not the timing... January, March, June? I can't afford making a trade two months too early and waiting, making prays every day ? Buy and hold? No way! 3 I didn't know if the impact would be 10%, 20%, 30% increase of the CHF? No targets means I can't quantify my positions. 4 This was not a liquid bet and I was not an expert on it. Moreover, how can you keep your trades ("buy and hold") when there are lot of people looking over your shoulder, second-guessing you, arguing with you every day? Impossible. You need to be right with a good timing and make money fast. I give you 2 last examples to explain why I need to make money fast : 1 I began to be heavily long equities 15th of October 14. And you know what ? Every hour, someone would tell me to sell everything, that it was the end of the world bla bla. I was right "too early" for 1 day ?! I didn't sell, I kept my positions but I could have been in big troubles if equities were down one more week. Now I prefer to laugh at it but these are the rules. 2 Two weeks ago, I began to short the US markets and long US bonds, and you know what? Every day, every hour, someone would explain me that Draghi and friends are ready to save (again) the world... Even if I am right, I could be forced to close my shorts equities because two weeks are too long nowadays! That's life, again these are the rules! Chris Mac
Hello Chris Mac: Thanks. I see. Timing is key. So why did you get heavily long equities 15th of October 14 which was great timing and then two weeks ago short the US markets and long US bonds ? That is absolutely amazing. It seems to me the day after 15th of October 14 equities could have just as likely continued downwards. Also where was your stop after going long 15th of October 14 in equities ?
Well I will explain you and I am sure you will find a bit "basic" but it worked in this case. See graph below (Nasdaq). Usually former big resistances can be great supports. Moving Average 200 (in yellow here) is usually a great support too. At that time : 3740 was the former big resistance MA 200 was @ 3770. For me, 3740/3770 was the best entry point. I bought the 15th on average @3760. Stops were below 3700 and 3650, in order to try again to buy between 3400 and 3600 if markets continued to collapse. Sadly, I exited @4100 because I was afraid of a double top... That was a mistake because I considered that a lot of people bought early with me... Reality was that majority bought later... Hope it helps Chris Mac
Why am I bear? I think Apple, number 1 stock in the world is ready for a big correction. Sure I can be wrong and I wouldn't be the last to buy all the world but I think probabilities are higher on the downside. Again a graph... When Apple was stopped @115, that was for me an orange flag. Then it was rapidly a red flag when the traditional "end of year rally" didn't want to happen. So I was short. As of today, stochastics of Apple are still in a bad shape. My target is USD80/90 if support (green) breaks. USD70 in case of a big panic. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, who knows? As I am writing these lines, probabilities are still on my favor. Now I need to make some trades, sorry if I can't answer others questions today. Chris Mac
Hello Chris Mac: Thanks for the answers to my questions, great explanations. It helps a lot. Good luck on your trading. Anubis