Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by scriabinop23, Aug 29, 2006.
Down .50 while oct is only down .18. looks like a good spread opportunity.
Historically, long Nov, short Oct is an extremley reliable spread trade at this time of year.
i was thinking the opposite. short Nov long Oct. It looks like high Nov prices are already factored in. With energy selling off, it looks like there's more reason for Nov to fall than Oct to.
Target of 7.50-8.00 for Nov, Oct hedge in place for hurricane risk.
the current issue of Futures magazine has an mention on page 22
about gas spreads with a weekly chart
you might want to buy the issue or go to a book store that carries it to read it before you start spec in spreads
perhaps the NYMEX can also point you in the proper direction
on how to learn more about gas spreads etc
if you are an experienced energy spread trader and
have such money management skills as to avoid
what happened to an energy hedge fund a few months
ago then please ignore my advise
trading natural gas is like riding a wild bronco. charts have meant nothing as it reverses either way on a dime and crushes all. i'd be very suprised if many people have made much trading it
by the way ...
I seriously doubt you can do this from home
( i.e. overnight in asian time zone )
QG OCT volume is over 500
QG NOV volume is under 10
on small size (ie 1-3 contracts) it will work. i entered qg short 8.49 nov, qg long 6.66 oct. Its approximate -- and when i eventually decide to close the position, I may do it when the spread is tighter during the day (or wider at night if its to my advantage).
now so far, prices are at 6.75 and 8.53 - i may have been able to do a little better on november. so i am down $65 on the 'inefficiency spread'. but as time goes on, this should not be as big a deal.
now if i planned on doing it with 20 contracts, thats another story.
In Traders Magazine (yes, I know it's rubbish), a lot of the top locals were Natural Gas floor traders on Nymex.
Yeah, I know that's what you meant, but you'd be fighting the historical performance if you entered it now.
since the gap is about $2.00 between the 2 nearest months, my spread will benefit if that margin closes by any amount.
At closing 2 days ago, the difference between Sep and Oct was something like $.30. So even if at expiration the difference is $1.00, I'm still better off.
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