Did any technicals predict the melt down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Saltynuts, Feb 8, 2018.

  1. Neuroway

    Neuroway

    Nothing predicts anything, Saltynuts. A trade is just like a chess move. Your opponent is the market. In chess, for instance, if you've got this:

    1. e4 e5
    2. f4

    You've got a potential King's Gambit. White offers a pawn to Black in exchange for faster development. Nothing, and I repeat, nothing can predict that Black (in that case, Mr. Market) is going to accept the gambit. If it does, then you (White) know what will happen:

    2. ... exf4.

    You then know what your options are. You're in control. Total control. That's if you know how to play chess (or the market), of course. For me, it's just the same. A trade on the market is nothing more than a single move in a game of chess. It is not deterministic at all. It's just a move. Hopefully bringing you one step closer to victory.
     
    #31     Feb 8, 2018
  2. Neuroway

    Neuroway

    This is a real work of art. :cool:
     
    #32     Feb 8, 2018
    Maverick2608 likes this.
  3. Not only did I predicted, I back it up with my action by moving all the money out of my 401k mutual funds into money market account last friday 2/2/18.
     
    #33     Feb 8, 2018
  4. Sprout

    Sprout


    Overnight between 1/29 and 1/30 on the 30min, the simple MA20 and MA50 XO'd MA200. From there it's easy to see the concerted selling pressure continuing. There were signals prior to this but the above is simpler to see and understand. The symmetrical opposite is valid as well.

    The settings can be fiddled with more or less to compare and contrast short term oscillations of price vs longer waves. Like swinging someone on a swing, there's the feeling of going with the flow vs contra-flow and the interaction between the two.
     
    #34     Feb 8, 2018
  5. speedo

    speedo

    Two strong consecutive divergent highs signaled serious weakening.
    upload_2018-2-8_21-20-25.png
     
    #35     Feb 8, 2018
  6. EScover.jpg
     
    #36     Feb 8, 2018
  7. Exactly. Trading the divergences in this type of a trend is suicide. They wouldve lost most of their money a long time ago
     
    #37     Feb 9, 2018
    KevinD likes this.
  8. Then why post it lol? whats the point in showing something that doesnt work? Looking at the chart you posted i can see multiple divergences that wouldve emptied your account a long time ago.
     
    #38     Feb 9, 2018
  9. tomorton

    tomorton


    A strategy dependent for profitability on predicting the timing and depth of a sudden market correction is probably not a good one to follow. The process of prediction suggests a need to prepare for a unique event, implying that most of the time preparation would be inappropriate as a correction is not predicted.
     
    #39     Feb 9, 2018
  10. I don't see many. I see one other period where ROC went flat while price went higher in - early Nov '17.

    But I don't use ROC in isolation to make a trade decision and always always need confirmation once a decision is made.
     
    #40     Feb 9, 2018