Did any technicals predict the melt down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Saltynuts, Feb 8, 2018.

  1. Of course. Most people wont show it on here though
     
    #21     Feb 8, 2018
  2. Most every indicator is based on rate of change of price and/or volume.

    Here is TD ROC clearly showing flattening momentum into the top or in other words diverging from price:
    SPX ROC.png
     
    #22     Feb 8, 2018
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Just because you can't why do you generalize that others can't either?

    As an answer to OP's questions, 2 things:

    1. We kind of needed to put in a double bottom type of thing and that indicated a low like 2 days ago. The market just rallying back to the previous new highs was a mirage.

    2. We dropped 2870-2530=340 ES points from top to bottom and usually a 50% retrace is in order. If we do the math, 2530+170=2700 and yesterday's top was at 2727 or so.
     
    #23     Feb 8, 2018
  4. I don't completely disagree with what you're saying however, there's definitely a synergy going on between the market acting on price and volume data as it becomes available and price and volume being the result of the market acting independently of this information as it becomes available...and there's a time synergy going on.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
    #24     Feb 8, 2018
  5. Looks a little cherry picked to me.
     
    #25     Feb 8, 2018
  6. Ya got me, it is cherry picked. I use two momentum indicators - TD ROC and 5-34-5. The ROC diverged the other nuh uh. :sneaky:
     
    #26     Feb 8, 2018
  7. Almost everything.You choose.
     
    #27     Feb 8, 2018
  8. Support becomes resistance -
    SPX pivot.png
     
    #28     Feb 8, 2018
  9. lcranston

    lcranston

    If you're interested in something simple and very old, consider Wyckoff's approach, a continual analysis of the balance between buying pressure and selling pressure. Begin with a weekly trend channel of a mean-reverting instrument such as the ES or NQ, wait for a break above the upper limit (or a reversal if there's no break), a break of the trend, then a lower high, i.e., a withdrawal of buying interest (note the red dot). Did it predict the meltdown? No. The trades are taken for sound reasons, but the outcome of any given trade is unknowable. In this case, for example, price could have dropped just back into the channel and begun ranging in preparation for a further advance. However, the likelihood, given the near-vertical movement over the past two weeks, was for a release. That's just the way the market works.

    It's indicator-free, which can save you a great deal of time and effort if the approach appeals to you.

    [​IMG]
     
    #29     Feb 8, 2018
    Xela and athlonmank8 like this.
  10. bh_prop

    bh_prop

    The problem with momentum divergences is while at times they are precursors to important trend changes, quite often they motivate you to exit a trade even during a strong trend, or worse yet, to attempt fading it. Take a closer look at the chart you posted, there are many "bearish" divergences that occur throughout the uptrend.
     
    #30     Feb 8, 2018