I've never been much of a technician (ok, never been one at all), but I think it is something I should start getting smart on. I want to start with the technicals that would have pointed me to the meltdown that started (I think) on Friday, and has generally continued through today. Any suggestions? Thanks.
If you fancy yourself an investor: Scores of technicians have been calling for.a meltdown for eight years and it is a good thing savvy longterm investors were not listening. Watch some Warren Buffett utube videos. You are on the wrong track. _____ * if you fancy yourself a modern Jesse Livermore, I have no comment.
Haha, thanks 777. I hear you - when I was younger I read books on technicals, but they always seemed so voodoo to me. If nothing else though I'd like to "get smart" on them again just for shiats and giggles, whether or not they are ultimately worth anything. qxr1011, thanks - did trend-lines and support/resistance predict this meltdown? Thanks.
My bread and butter is trading pullbacks/consolidations in trends. Looking for new relevant highs/lows with momentum and looking for volatility contraction in the pullbacks. Looking at the SNP 500 its pretty easy to see the last swing went parabolic. Everyone's panicking to get in and when the last buyers bought in ,these type of moves above the keltner channels usually come crashing hard. I find Keltner channels help me see these parabolic moves quickly when I'm flipping through hundreds of charts a night. Hugging of the bands can lead to some very nice new swing highs but when the lows are even above the bands its usually a sign of FOMO and that can lead to some nasty moves eventually. Don't know if I'd say I could predict the meltdown or anyone could, but I did expect at least a deep pullback and for it to consolidate in a range between the current bands high/low before we could make another swing up. After the big moves in volatility I'm on the sidelines until a uptrend or downtrend becomes forming. We're in a range right now and my strategies/my risk tolerance don't do well with high volatility ranges.
imho no analysis (FA or TA) has any predictive value, they have only indicative value , in this case of breakdown
I'm not sure the technicals predicted the meltdown, I think the market acted on the technicals as they were developing. I'm not sure this is a meltdown also, it could be just a long term pullback.
Wow Metamega, those are very interesting charts! Reading up on those Keltner channels now. Are those just the "standard" channels? Thanks!