Actually, sounds like you didn't read my article. No big deal. it's just funny to me how many people insist on trashing me without reading the article or knowing the facts and they feel the need to do it right here.
True!I apologize for myself and everyone.Here is the platform to be: brahma-bhutah prasannatma na shocati na kankshati samah sarveshu bhuteshu mad-bhaktim labhate param [Bg. 18.54]
You disappoint me. Too bad. Good luck with you blog, I am sure you will find a way to make a lot of money out of it.
Generally, I'm not a fan of your blog but have read it a couple times for exogenous reasons. I do, however, think that your post, "Who Makes Money on Wall Street" is right on. Cheers!
No...I read it. You list things that have been around for a long time (except for HFT's). 2nd and 20 mgmt fees has been around....inside info has been around (Ivan Boesky), congressmen getting tips has been around, buy and hold has been around (ask them how they felt in 2008). Back in the 90's the whiners cried about the specialists screwing them...now they cry about HFT. Traders either adapt or move onto something else. But honestly the characteristics of good traders has always been the same...discipline,hard work,discipline,keeping emotions in check,discipline, excellent risk mgmt,discipline, ability to adapt to changes. You wonder why people are critical of you with this piece? Well...you come off as someone making excuses and whining.....and add in the fact you are bragging about the people you know. Makes for an easy target.
Guys if you have the time to read altucher's blog or whatever why don't you come and read mine? By: Alex Cho with Fitrade Quote from: Credit Suisse The ECB provided another substantial liquidity injection to the financial system in the euro area. The second 3-year LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) provided a total of nearly â¬530bn in fixed rate funding, slightly above the consensus median expectation of â¬450bn. No further 3-year funding operations have been announced but we would not exclude them if events on the economic and/or political front turn more sour again. (end quote) The recent decline in the EUR/USD pair has everything to do with LTRO. As the ECB accumulates a total of 3.1T Euros in European Debt on its balance sheet. Which means that 3.1T Euros have been âcreatedâ, or to be more accurate. The ECB issued more currency, and bought bond notes from the secondary market in order to inflate bond values, drop interest rates, while reducing the supply of bonds on the secondary markets. Forcing large institutions to invest in other assets that have equivalent scale like the stock market, or chase other high yielding assets like foreign treasury bonds with lower credit ratings. The theme is that both the federal reserve and ECB have halted their rapid issuance of currency. Because both forms of policy easing is over in both the USA and Europe. We have to compare the current Federal reserve rate to the ECB rate to determine whoâs inflating the economy faster. From: Global-Rates ECB Interest Rates Over Previous Year Currently the ECB has a 1% interest rate which is less inflationary than what the Federal Reserve has opted for in terms of interest rate policy. From: Global-Rates Federal Reserve Interest Rates Over Previous Year Currently the Federal reserve has a .25% interest rate. So going forward the US economy is going to inflate at a faster rate, which should, and actually has lead to the reversal in the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD has recovered after I highlighted the pivot point on the chart in my previous blog post, and I believe the EUR/USD will continue to go higher based on the comparative interest rate structure between the two economic zones. The downside is that the EUR/USD falls lower on tail risk which would lead to another round of LTRO, or if economic growth were to miss expectations leading to ECB interest rate cuts. Any mix of negative data from Europe in other words, will promptly reverse the positive trend in the EUR/USD.
Its this sentence that people are disagreeing with: "Can you make money in the long run using charts, TA, etc: No. Nobody has ever done, nobody ever will. And with more computers in the game than ever, it will become even more impossible. " also James you appear to be lumping everyone who disagrees with you into the hater camp. Can you make money in the long run using.......charts, ta, etc. I mean how would one prove/disprove this statement. Your anecdote about some hedgies doesn't prove anything to me. Lots of smart people have had their asses handed to them by the mkt.
You could easily make money off of charts in the past. I did and my returns were very consistent in up and down markets. Electronic futures and decimals allowed computers to replace what the guys in the office and I did. But we did it for years.
"Survivorship bias"? Were these the only systems you traded for hedge funds? Or do they represent the pick of the crop (i.e. those systems which did well, as opposed to those that didn't ... )?