Regarding Corona , a lot of medics even 1 of the government advisers ( not the main ones), suggest lockdown will have to stay until a vaccine , I saw an economist on TV who said 6 months would be about the max the gov could afford at present burn rate , however that was before it was realised quite how big the burn rate is , so 6 months seems optimistic , nowhere near the 12-18 months before vaccine. I suspect attitudes to lockdown will look very different in 3 months ( if continued with ), I doubt we'll get that far. PS P:L ratio 35.6:1. it doesn't get any better than that , give me a clue as to how you manage that?
Trading Summary Week Ended 17th April 2020 39 Trades: 2 AAL + 126 BPS. 3 BP + 1,097 BPS. 1 GLEN + 3,523 BPS. 1 FRES + 800 BPS. 32 UK100 + 2,832 BPS. 11 long trades + 960 BPS. 28 short trades + 7,418 BPS. 29 intra-day trades + 497 BPS. 10 multi-day trade + 7,881 BPS. Total trades net + 8,378 BPS. Return on account for the week + 3.81 % net. P:L ratio 33.5:1. Days traded: 4. Longest trade duration: 475 days. Shortest trade duration: 1 min. (All PNL expressed in basis points for the purpose of comparison.) Thoughts Another four day week due to the Easter holiday. Difficult trading conditions yet again, and there were some big moves on stocks and indices. Despite some poor exits, still above my 2.5% benchmark, (stock positions were all pretty small). Overnight on Thursday/Friday we saw a sharp rally on the US futures on hopes of a treatment for the corona virus. This pushed the FTSE back above 5800 for a while, despite some pretty awful GDP data from China. Since last Friday, the index lost 55.7 points, or 0.95%. Crude oil was weak again, with WTI crude breaking below $19. It was over $50 in February of this year, a huge decline. Away from the markets, our lock down has been extended until May the 11th. It's getting very tedious, especially at the weekend when I'm not trading. And I still think it's a misguided policy. But nobody asks me about these things. Expecting more volatility and trading opportunities next week. Stay disciplined. Stay focussed. Stay humble.
Away from the markets, our lock down has been extended until May the 11th. It's getting very tedious, especially at the weekend when I'm not trading. And I still think it's a misguided policy. But nobody asks me about these things. Well I agree with you about lockdown , especially for young people , ( a study in California puts death rate between 0.1% and 0.2%, maybe less if your in your 20's , which is probably less than the annual death rate ( outside of corona in an average year)for that age group , a lot less.
Trading Summary Week Ended 24th April 2020 28 Trades: 3 AAL + 459 BPS. 1 BP + 461 BPS. 3 GLEN + 3,667 BPS. 1 RDSB + 4 BPS. 1 US CRUDE + 222 BPS. 19 UK100 + 315 BPS. 8 long trades + 404 BPS. 20 short trades + 4,724 BPS. 21 intra-day trades + 1010 BPS. 7 multi-day trade + 4,118 BPS. Total trades net + 5,128 BPS. Return on account for the week + 1.01 % net. P:L ratio N/A. Days traded: 5. Longest trade duration: 587 days. Shortest trade duration: 1 min. (All PNL expressed in basis points for the purpose of comparison.) Thoughts Back to five day weeks after the Easter holiday. Markets were active again, especially the crude oil market, where futures prices went negative for a while on Monday. This is the 15m chart of WTI: I suspect this move may have blown up a few hedge funds. We shall hear about any in due course. The FTSE was weak on Tuesday, dropping to 5,641, then broke above 5,800 on Thursday, exceeding the high from last Friday by a few points, before declining on Friday morning. Made a few poor trade exits, especially on a long trade on RDSB, which I should have held for much longer. Well below my 2.5% weekly benchmark. Looking forward to more volatility and trading opportunities next week. Stay disciplined. Stay focussed. Stay humble.
Trading Summary Week Ended 1st May 2020 47 Trades: 2 AAL + 295 BPS. 2 BP + 258 BPS. 2 GLEN + 525 BPS. 2 RDSB + 50 BPS. 1 STAN + 279 BPS. 38 UK100 + 6,426 BPS. 23 long trades + 368 BPS. 23 short trades + 7,465 BPS. 31 intra-day trades + 1,087 BPS. 16 multi-day trade + 6,746 BPS. Total trades net + 7,833 BPS. Return on account for the week + 8.38 % net. P:L ratio 9.04:1. Days traded: 5. Longest trade duration: 488 days. Shortest trade duration: 1 min. (All PNL expressed in basis points for the purpose of comparison.) Thoughts Another volatile week, the FTSE made a new post COVID19 crash high on Thursday over 6150, markets seemed to be putting the virus situation behind them. The banks had a powerful rally. Then we had a sharp sell off down below 5800 on Thursday and Friday. RD Shell got hammered after they cut the dividend for the first time in decades, which didn't help the overall market, given the weight of BP and Shell in the FTSE. A fairly busy week, above my 2.5% weekly benchmark. I'm not sure if the equity markets will want to re-test the recent lows, we shall see. April was an active month trading, I made 158 trades and a net return of just over 14%. Looking forward to more volatility and trading opportunities next week. Stay disciplined. Stay focussed. Stay humble.
Trading Summary Week Ended 8th May 2020 15 Trades: 4 BP + 288 BPS. 2 GLEN + 3,501 BPS. 1 STAN + 334 BPS. 8 UK100 + 79 BPS. 4 long trades + 58 BPS. 11 short trades + 4,144 BPS. 13 intra-day trades + 434 BPS. 2 multi-day trade + 3,768 BPS. Total trades net + 4,202 BPS. Return on account for the week + 0.41 % net. P:L ratio N/A. Days traded: 4. Longest trade duration: 147 days. Shortest trade duration: 1 min. (All PNL expressed in basis points for the purpose of comparison.) Thoughts Another four day week, due to the bank holiday to commemorate VE - Day. A quieter week for me, markets were less volatile than they have been recently. The FTSE traded in a range from around 5700 to 5940... Few trades and well below my 2.5% weekly benchmark. Over the VE - Day holiday weekend in 1995, exactly twenty-five years ago, I was sailing my small boat, 'Sophie Too' from Lymington in Hampshire down to Poole Harbour, via a night's stay tied up to the key in Christchurch. Great fun, and the weather was perfect. I still recall the strength of the ebb tidal race as we shot out of Christchurch harbour the next morning, it can exceed six knots in the 'run' according to the almanac... The beer(s) in the pub in Christchurch tasted pretty good too. Gales I think it was. Happy memories. Seems like yesterday. Poole Harbour: Lots of info on Christchurch here: https://eoceanic.com/sailing/harbours/485/ Our lock down here is due to be eased on Monday, which I'm looking forward to. Will be able to travel up & down the coast a bit. Looking forward to more trading opportunities next week. Stay disciplined. Stay focussed. Stay humble.
Talking of sailing , it was just over 40 years ago the Fastnet tragedy happened , a week or so later another storm came through which caught out my father and me as we sailed back from Gosport to Brighton , my father dicided to take a short cut across the owers sandbank , needless to say we ended up in some very big surf , I small navy ship started radioing us and signalling via lamp in morse code , my rather embarrassed father decided to ignore this and have another large scotch hoping for the best. I was about 13 and up to my waist in sea water in our swamped cockpit,( I had to steer for some reason), eventually the wind and waves spat us out the other side , but was a little hairy.
Henry - ha ha... good story. I was once sailing with my dad in our dingy, near Porthmadog in North Wales. We somehow capsized and it was March, and the water was VERY cold. Got the boat upright eventually and got a tow back into the port. My dad was a master in the merchant navy, so was used to handling a ship, but a dingy on a squally day in Wales was another sort of challenge.