So how shall I turn "MAYBE" into a definite "YES", or I might be completely wasting my time? Thank you!
Yeah for day trading what I am worried is you spend a lot of time developing an edge, but it doesn't have scalability and doesn't have capacity...
Okay the key question still is: Do the traders in specialized energy trading shops (those experts in transportation, pipelines, refineries, chemical engineering, etc) have an edge in terms of trading big money (not about day-trading)... ie they make easier money ... and it seems to me that in commodities markets, there is no such thing as "inside-trading" ... and "inside-trading" seems to be legitimate?
$ return and Sharpe vs. unit of effort? Probably. Since the extent of insider trading is a 'known unknown', a better question might be "Does the impact of trading by insiders and/or those with expert knowledge erode significantly any edge I might derive from making the extra effort?" I think it's market-specific. If we accept the position of Bone, NoDoji et al that all fundamentals are represented in the price, the question then is how quickly is it fully reflected? In the FX markets, for example, the complete assimilation of new macro information into exchange rates may take several days, because the real money funds and the non-profit seeking actors don't turn on a dime. If most of the fundamental news (transportation, pipelines, refineries, chemical engineering) is released into the public domain in timely fashion, presumably as long as you have a model for its effect on price then you may not be at a great disadvantage. Testing is going to give you an answer independent to the oil traders' chatter. P.S. Disclaimer: I know sweet f.a. about the energy sector
Your "edge" i hate that word... Is anything you do to make money. This includes, but not limited to a combination of.... Plan, Entry pattern, entry trigger, exit pattern, exit trigger, trade management, position sizing, money management technique, stress management, account size, platform, broker, costs, execution speed, internet connection, experience, reading context, discipline ect. There are many ways to make money and even more ways to lose it. No one can develop your way of making money besides you. Good trading to you.