dest's discord group--tickers, structuring and pnl

Discussion in 'Journals' started by destriero, May 15, 2020.

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  1. God, you lucky fuckers. I'm totally jealous. :)

    I've been fighting weight gain all my life, and never done any better than barely a draw. I'd give anything to be in a position where I need to slam down a burger and a shake just to keep up with maintenance.

    Good that he's getting some muscle on that frame. The girls will go nuts. :)
     
    #121     Jul 7, 2020
    ITM_Latino and destriero like this.
  2. destriero

    destriero


    He doesn't like the beach pic bc he thinks it's a funny expression and his older Bro won't be seen in pics, although they look like twins to scale. Both are overachievers.

    2020-07-07_09-54-34.png
     
    #122     Jul 7, 2020
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  3. speedo

    speedo

    #123     Jul 7, 2020
    Ace66 likes this.
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Well no duh lol...!!!

    I posted the link as an edit because there were a few CA schools in there. All good schools. Dest's kid needs to hit the East Coast though. Get away from dad.
     
    #124     Jul 7, 2020
  5. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    You don’t have to answer this, I enjoy reading this thread and deducing from it, but if anyone is willing to chime in, would be appreciated

    condor as being described above, my interpretation of this quote is as following:
    Earnings season- DJX IV 30 - am I Selling August put condors, 30/35 85/90? ~28.25 IV, Credit $4; Risk is almost nothing at expiration? Thanks

    Edit: assumptions are wrong. The r:r on this is 4x but there is certainly loss potential. The July is most forgiving and razor thin loss potential. I’m too noob to know why but working on it
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
    #125     Jul 11, 2020
  6. shh

    shh

    If pre-earning IV is at double the normal levels, your 1 std-dev IC should be safe. Sure the underlying can move to the wings (I think we technically call them terminals), but so much IV will collapse, that regardless your structure will survive or even make money.
     
    #126     Jul 11, 2020
  7. destriero

    destriero

    Neither will have any problems there. Oldest is at W&L and could transfer anywhere; Stanford, H, etc. Youngest got a 28 on ACT but will take it again. Same score as his brother's first time. SAT comparable but younger hasn't taken it yet.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
    #127     Jul 11, 2020
    speedo likes this.
  8. destriero

    destriero

    DJX? 230/235/285/290P?

    1) Don't trade deep ITM naturals. It makes no sense to trade DITM legs. There is no turnover in the deep stuff. Trade irons (synthetic). Always trade OTM when possible.

    2) You're only risking a buck, but the mkt has to move 3K Dow to for the max terminal payoff in a month. Price the position ATM (205/210/260/265) to stress Day1 valuation at flat vols. You're not going to like it. It's $2. Nice, but there are better structures to achieve a triple.

    I don't dislike the position, but why Aug? You think it's possible that the Dow melts-up 3K points in the next month? Better stuff on the downside if it's a crash scenario. I wouldn't pay 28 vol for a condor payoff here.

    3) Trade fewer contracts, wider strikes. Comms aren't really the issue but discrete strikes are not going to produce the gains (you think they will).
     
    #128     Jul 11, 2020
    edgefirst, ITM_Latino, .sigma and 2 others like this.
  9. destriero

    destriero

    Youngest (son) is taking a gap year to live in downtown Stockholm and travel throughout the EU, mainly Scandinavia, providing that travel is allowed. His cousin did it last year (her junior year) while attending Lund U as a Northwestern study abroad student. She graduated summa last month.
     
    #129     Jul 11, 2020
  10. destriero

    destriero

    Trade half as many and you have a triple on the ATM stress and will own Sep vola as Aug goes off. This is a day1 stress. Tenors are not equal (40 v. 68 days). You don't have weeklies with DJX but you can still vert it off when Aug goes off the board (fly; asym-fly; asym-condor).

    Stress on single 220P is $0.9 loss at static px & vol. So risk is comparable to the condor with large vol-gains possible. Diag can be worth more than strike diff.

    2020-07-11_10-51-43.png 2020-07-11_10-54-20.png 2020-07-11_10-55-49.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
    #130     Jul 11, 2020
    deltaf0rce, thefuturestrader and shh like this.
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