Destriero - Butterfly Trades

Discussion in 'Options' started by ironchef, Dec 11, 2020.

  1. But if you left it unmanaged and closes above 115, you end up flat anyway right? (just losing the debit if it was initiated as a sym. natural per your example).
    The real assignment risk is if spot closes between 115 and 105.

    Please correct me if am wrong, sometimes I get such a hard time closing them that i'm exploring the what-ifs in letting some of them expire.
     
    #511     Apr 19, 2021
    .sigma likes this.
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    Report card time.

    First 30 flies, 63% winners and 37% losers. Overall profitable but not killing it.

    It was a simple setup, 121 call flies 1 SD wide, 30 days to expiry. Used Chef's opinions to forecast direction for belly/body placement. Took profit when target was met. As for trade management, after early fiasco tried to make adjustments, for later trades, simply let them expired.

    This setup ignored all the stuff @destriero talked about, microstructures, skew, etc. and was a pure directional play. It is good enough to place small trades for fun and for pocket money but not ready for prime time.

    Great thing about fly: The downside is limited.

    The study continues.
     
    #512     Apr 20, 2021
  3. qlai

    qlai

    What about upside? What is expected avg winner to loser ratio?
     
    #513     Apr 20, 2021
  4. You're building skill, which is what matters.
     
    #514     Apr 20, 2021
    BlueWaterSailor, .sigma and ironchef like this.
  5. .sigma

    .sigma

    did you initiate the fly ATM? Or slightly or farther OTM? also, which products have you been testing these on?
     
    #515     Apr 20, 2021
  6. Justrade

    Justrade

    what do you define as target met
     
    #516     Apr 20, 2021
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    Limited up side too. :(
    If you narrow the wings to almost nothing you can get a R:R >> 1 but then it is like playing lottery.
     
    #517     Apr 20, 2021
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    Never ATM. Mostly OTM but sometimes ITM.

    SPY and single names, a few I already mentioned in prior posts.
     
    #518     Apr 20, 2021
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    I had a profit target prior to entering the trade. Once met, closed the trade, no exception. If the trade went against me, I let it expired whatever the outcome.

    It is just an experiment, not a secret source.
     
    #519     Apr 20, 2021
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you.
     
    #520     Apr 20, 2021