Designing and Building a Profitable Automated Trading System

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by ScottD, Dec 9, 2008.

  1. Annotated with price

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    #121     Dec 15, 2008
  2. Ezzy

    Ezzy

     
    #122     Dec 15, 2008
  3. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    25 pages turn into 9 easy to see steps, I like it, thanks.:p
     
    #123     Dec 16, 2008
  4. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    fed day
     
    #124     Dec 16, 2008
  5. #
    So...no more code? I guess you're not going to discuss the profitability problem with the current version are you?
     
    #125     Dec 16, 2008
  6. #
    There is no more code because the area marked suppression is not possible to code nor to define. It is really the "meat" of the Hershey method. And because its only possible to define the suppression area after the fact it can never be used in actual trading. Its what many of the Hershey critics have been pointing out for literally YEARS: Elimintaing the losing "chop" area under the Hershey method is only possible EX POST FACTO.
     
    #126     Dec 16, 2008
  7. Here is the annotation for an FOMC news day

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    #127     Dec 16, 2008
  8. Here is the full display including price.

    I hope we return to coding soon. I have the Excel in binary at this point.

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    #128     Dec 16, 2008
  9. Here is the initial beginner level suppression circuit.

    The objective of the logic is to have a "gating" signal that prevents an entry or reversal signal from the STF5 or an signal from the STF14 which covers a trade.

    To make clear what the input and output looks like it is a good idea to show the conditions of the cases. three logic blocks are used and each has two inputs.

    An OR is used on the absolute value MACD and an AND is used on the oscillator value STF14. Their "true" outputs are used to get the "gate" that prevents trading for beginners.

    When you look at actual situations you see that the "gate" allows trades to happen when the STF14 goes to extreme values sometimes. But this does not matter when we want to prevent trades because the STF5 cannot generate an entry or reversal under those conditions.

    This circuit or logic would go in the box showing the overall logic labelled Suppression Logic.

    You can see on that illustration that more than the MACD and the STF14 feeds theSuppression Logic. As we get into more sophisticated trades we will see why. It has to do with the PACE of the market and the volume shifts.

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    #129     Dec 16, 2008
  10. There are a few tests of using this ATS for trading given days.

    We are using one specific day to be able to compare how logic improvements work on this day. So far we have several tests..

    The above suppression logic can be added to the bunch.

    We can see that we set the defaults to cycle (long and short or vice versa within 13 or 14 bars. A trading cycle will usally be around half that number of bars UNLESS we are not having cycles. That is a trending day where the 30 minute trade will last until a MOC trade at the end of the day. In steep trends that are cycling the midpoint of the cycle also shifts away from the middle of the perodicity. At one time in the transition from analog computers to digital, there was a stopping off point in between. around 1955 or 6 the Navy spent time on Time Ratio Modulation. This was a consequence of the connection of transmitting data and remote processing. BTL also worked with WECO on similar stuff when ships were ID'ed by their characterisitc sounds as they moved through water. The musical instrument that comes close to some of this is the steel guitar that has peddles for adjusting the sound. the eletromagnetic pickup under the two sets of 10 strings coincidently uses some of the concepts of the two Navy projects.

    If we can see the periodicity of trends (channels) and break up the long and short subtrends (traverses) that form the trends (channels) we have a trading advantage. A lot of the logic for thiscomes from suppression and gating.

    We will see this again with respect to traverses and the tapes that make up traverses.

    If we keep alert along the way we can prevent fractal jumping as we get acquainted with the details of the ATS.

    You can expect about 8 doublings of profit as we drill down into the matter.
     
    #130     Dec 16, 2008