Hi all, Looking at the following chart, it looks like we're either in the middle of a descending triangle, or a rather large pennant with a push next week past the 200 MA. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p01483706141 The weekly chart would communicate that the 1040 level held enough to warrant a further move upward. Monday's opening will be key to see if we get above 1100 or stay within that triangle and move downwards towards 1040 again. MACD and STO are pointing upward on most of the indexes, but the RSI is still right below 50 on most. What do you all think? - Bird
Looks like a very indecisive market to me. Typical of turning points in the market. But which direction will it turn? Next week is expiration however, and that gives a statistical edge to an up market, at least going into, or on, Friday. When you have the kind of light volume typical of Summer trading the market is even more prone to tantrums then usual. It seems to be a bit early for the "gee ain't America Great" pre-election market to get wound up and rolling" but Mr. Market will, as always, do as he pleases.
A descending triangle is the same as a descending wedge. According to Stikky Stock Charts, a descending triangle is bearish. But according to Carl Swenlin of decisionpoint.com, a descending wedge is bullish. I wish you technicians got your shit together.
Thanks for the votes and commentary. I almost thought this thread might have been better suited for the Technical Analysis sections of the site after posting it. I guess as long as we're in this no-mans land between 1040-1070, or 1070-1100, it's kind of rudderless. We've hit the 200 SMA about four times now, and it's either going to take algos or a news event to punch it up beyond that. One of my favorite reads Nic Lenoir has been suggesting fresh shorts at around 1106. We hit 1105.9 briefly Monday morning, but went back down on Greece's junk rating. Should be interesting to watch in the next couple of days. - Bird