This is a pretty good take on the overall situation. I'm not a fan of Ingraham as she has too many "lead the witness" questions, but important differences are called out here between what happened in NY and is happening in FL. The video is at the link if you want to see it. Florida health expert denies Sunshine State is facing New York-style COVID-19 disaster: 'It's pretty clear' Dr. Charles Lockwood, dean of the University of South Florda's College of Medicine, told "The Ingraham Angle" Tuesday that "it's pretty clear" that the state's current increase in confirmed coronavirus cases doesn't come close to the catastrophic effect of the virus on New York and New Jersey. "For one thing," Lockwood told host Laura Ingraham, "our case fatality rate -- that's the number of deaths over the number of cases -- is 1.5 percent. In New York City, right now, it's 10 percent. So that's a huge difference there." Lockwood acknowledged that while Florida's case count has increased "sixfold since June 10," neither the number of hospitalizations nor the number of deaths have kept pace. "Deaths are definitely a lagging indicator," said Lockwood. "But we should now be seeing a much higher case fatality rate. It has been predicted that our fatality rate would kind of do a 'U' and be heading back up. It's not. In fact, today in Hillsborough County [where Tampa is located], our case fatality rate was 0.9 percent. "That's the lowest, I think, in the United States." On Tuesday, the Florida Department of Health confirmed 9,261 confirmed cases in Florida residents, the first time since July 9 the number of new cases had dropped below 10,000. They also reported 132 additional deaths from COVID-19, the highest number in that category since July 9. "We are picking up asymptomatic cases, [and] picking up milder cases than we did before," Lockwood said. "When you test this number of people, thousands and thousands -- really, if you think about it, we are approaching one percent of the population in Florida being tested every day."
That is unfortunate. While I did not agree with virtually anything Tony said, it is important for a public forum to have both sides of the story (or for both sides to have a voice).
Let's see what Bloomberg news has to say about the upcoming deaths in Florida rather than listening to a DeSantis backer on FOX parrot the governor's line while pushing that the current Florida CFR is only 1.5%. Florida’s Covid-19 Deaths Might Rival New York's The state’s daily fatality count could hit 600 in a few weeks. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...rida-s-covid-19-deaths-might-rival-new-york-s People keep saying not to worry so much about the Covid-19 surge in Florida, because it isn’t killing a lot of people. I’m not buying it. And I’m sorry to predict that by early August, deaths in Florida will be almost as bad as New York at its worst. Florida and New York have similar populations (21.5 million and 19.5 million, respectively), so it’s possible to compare the two states using raw numbers rather than rates. New York’s worst daily case count was 11,434 on April 15, and its worst seven-day average was 9,909 on April 10. Florida had 15,300 new cases on July 12, and a 7-day average of 9,957. In other words, by this measure, Florida is as bad as New York ever was. Two Epicenters Florida's daily Covid-19 case count is as bad as New York's ever was. (active chart in article) But testing in the U.S. is inadequate, and hence misses a lot of cases. The percent of tests that come back positive offers a sense of how many we’re missing: The higher it is, the more we’re probably missing, because people with mild or no symptoms aren’t getting tested. Florida’s positive test rate was 18.6% as of July 12, which is pretty high but still short of New York’s 44% in the darkest days of the outbreak. The difference in positive test rates suggests that New York’s maximum daily case count was more like 24,000 in Florida terms (meaning that if New York had been testing as much as Florida is now, it would have found about 24,000 cases). So Florida’s actual case count of about 15,000 probably isn’t quite as bad as New York in April. Still, it’s very, very bad. What will this mean for deaths? That depends on how long fatal cases take to die. New York didn’t start counting cases until well after the epidemic had started, so recorded cases and deaths rose almost simultaneously. Florida has been counting cases for longer, so it’s easier to get a sense of the relationship. The time lag appears to be nearly a full month, in part because younger people – the ones who tend to go out and socialize in bars and so on -- have been getting infected first. A real prediction requires a number and a time stamp. So here goes: I forecast that by Tuesday, August 4, Florida’s seven-day average of daily deaths will reach 600. And every week with a high case count –- an average of about 10,000, assuming the positive case rate stays at about 18% -- will be followed about four weeks later by another 600-plus-death-per-day week. Of course I hope I’m wrong, and that my forecast proves to be wildly high. This is a case where there will be zero satisfaction in getting it right.
I don’t know about Florida having a fatality rate that will be comparable to NY and NJ. However, they will have significant loss of life. We have learned a few things in the treatment of Covid. Mostly it’s to keep patients off of ventilators and give them blood thinners to prevent clotting. Going backwards we are finding a lot of patients died from blood clots. Also, simple things like turning the patient to prevent saturation of the lungs helps make breathing more manageable. But just because we can prevent a lot of fatalities does not mean we can prevent serious disease that requires thousands of people to have intensive treatment. That alone will break the system and cripple the economy.
I expect the CFR in Florida will be lower than New York. This is due to several factors: Many of the tested in Florida are in younger age groups. Most of the people in New York were tested only when they were so sick that they were hospitalized. There were not enough tests to go around at the time. The treatment of patients has improved. Hospitals are trying to avoid ventilators, use remdesivir, use steroids, prevent blood clots and appropriately position patients to improve breathing. However if Florida has many more cases reported than New York.... even with a lower CFR Florida will likely be close to the number of total deaths if the current trends continue. Over 20.5% of the Florida population is over 65 years of age. This places Florida in the top two states with the greatest percentage of an at-risk elderly population. The epicenter of the outbreaks in Florida are currently in cities such as Miami with a younger population. It is just a matter of time till it spreads to the many retirement communities across the state. At this point DeSantis needs to step up and provide proper leadership to address the public health crisis. Instead he has down-played the COVID pandemic and is ordering mayors this week to tell the public that there is little risk and what a great job he is doing.
Define significant? Because in this post right here I go into go into great detail about why the overall death rate in Florida isn't anything over prior years, and is actually under the 2017 flu season. And not one of you challenged anything in there - because you can't. Now, does that mean it isn't possible to get worse? Of course it doesn't. We will have to see and hope. I know folks like gwb are praying it does so they can feel justified. But just imagine if people don't, and we can come back and remember all these posts.
The only thing I would say about this is that I think the numbers are only up to the 1st or so and we didn't see any spikes in TX or FL till around the 8th. I don't think TX or FL get to NJ/NY numbers ever though. I kinda though FL might get closer because of the stereotype of old people retiring in FL. No idea if it's just a stereotype or true, only place I have visited there is Orlando.
Yep----thought so! CDC chief says Northerners heading South for vacation may be to blame for surge in coronavirus cases, not state reopenings https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in- coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings.html We’re of the view that there was something else that was the driver. Maybe the Memorial Day, not weekend, but the Memorial Day week, where a lot of Northerners decided to go South for vacations,” Redfield said.
Oh, there are certainly way more old people here than most states. They don't call it "Heaven's Waiting Room" for nothing. But the older population is largely isolated and the younger folks are out getting sick - which is the way it should be during any virus. Older, more susceptible folks should isolate, the rest of the world goes on with its business. Families that have grand parents at home have to be extra careful.
This is the state's official update on all hospitals and ICU bed availability, and other COVID related data. Please use this resource when confirming whether or not ICU space is available (and not just taking the word of hearsay or articles pushing a narrative).