So, and this is really funny. I’m having evening drinks with a friend who manages US military Pandemic planning here at McDill in Tampa. He is telling me he has data that shows that today’s spike in deaths in Florida that showed over 120 some deaths in Florida (the one certain folks were trumpeting this morning) is actually a catch up of deaths that occurred, mostly, before July. He says that the total deaths in Florida when you Mark by date of death is actually 135 in total for July (at this point. These daily numbers will change as data comes in for previous days which is what I have been saying ALL along in this thread) “Dude, don’t believe the hype.” I’ll see what he is allowed to share and provide is as backup later this evening or first thing in the morning. What a laugh riot!
Deaths are holding about 100 for now in TX. Talked to my GI today who works at a hospital, she said it's not so much the beds right now in Dallas, it's the staff. I guess that makes sense.
Alright. So first, lets get the worldmeters update out of the way. I'm starting with this site since these are the charts everyone typically sees in the media, and the data referenced within. Florida cases and deaths as of today, reported on the worldmeters site. Remember, the Worldmeters site lists deaths on the day they were reported, not the day they occur. Additionally, deaths do not just contained confirmed cases of Covid that terminated, but probable cases. From the Worldmeters site itself: Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths Case count continues to post record cases tested positive. Then there are the deaths as reported. Remember, these aren't the deaths on the days the people actually died. Just when the reporting came through. This graph by itself would give cause to be worried - any sane person would look at that and go "holy crap, we're finally seeing the spike." Except that, when you dig into it, we really aren't. Of the 119 deaths that were reported on July 9, actually three occurred in July. You read correctly. 3. I don't have that number yet for July 10 which shows 93 deaths reported on July 10. My numbers are as of yesterday, so I can only speak to those. But it is clear which way the trend goes. Why the delay?? As this graph illustrates, there is a sometimes very lengthy process in getting data to the CDC for reporting purposes. Now, not all sites source from the CDC, so that doesn't explain the delay on sites like Worldmeters, the reporting methodology explains that (posting it on the day reported vs. the day it occurred). Because I don't want to get into an argument on the Florida portal about the data being manipulated, lets look at gwb's home state of North Carolina (which also has a dashboard, and a really good one). First, this is the Worldmeter's site: On July 9th, 23 deaths were reported on the worldmeters site in North Carolina. But only 1 occurred on that day. How do I know this? Because the North Carolina dashboard shows it: Can't blame this on some crackpot DeSantis manipulation theory. But it sure tells a different story, doesn't it? Looks like deaths are making a decline in NC, as case counts are rising. Just like Florida. One more thing on case counts for North Carolina because the graphs are so stark and then we will get back to Florida. Here is the Worldmeter's case count for North Carolina. Looks pretty bad, doesn't it. 7 day M/A is getting worse and, as our pal Suntrader likes to tell us, its all about the 7 day MA. In fact, yesterday I pointed this chart out to gwb and he agreed, it was getting worse in NC. Problem is, I was wrong. For the same reason on the deaths. Cases on the Worldmeters site show when the case was reported. Not when the specimen was collected. In fact, if I go to the NC portal and ask for the same data (by reported), I get a very similar picture. But lucky for us, NC has a cool little feature that lets us see case counts by when the specimen was actually collected! Would ya look at that!! NC doesn't look all that bad after all, does it? Especially when you consider NC Testing is still going strong: So if you were to believe the media articles, you'd want to slit your wrists. But the truth, as they say, shall set you free. I'll continue in the next post as images have a limit per post.
So lets go back to Florida, and this chart... Remember the conversations yesterday as certain members of the forum gleefully showed up bright and early to tell us how Florida was showing people dropping like flies and what they had told us was coming true for weeks was finally here? We heard statements like "Where are the deaths they whined? Just wait 4 to 6 weeks we stated. Well unfortunately as expected here they are." And we were given this chart as reference: The problem, of course, is as I outlined on the previous post. These are deaths as they were reported. And of the 119 deaths that were reported on July 9 (the last bar reaching into the sky on the above chart posted by gwb) only 8 of them occurred on July 9. EIGHT Putting 8 would barely even show up as a blip on that chart. In fact, the Worldometers and the above chart tell us that that 504 people died in July. The real number? 135. The real number of people who died in July is 27% of the number being shown on most sites, and more importantly being picked up by the media in all of the "Florida sees massive death spike" articles. When did those deaths actually occur? All throughout June. Here is a death chart by day of death, not when reported. Wow! What a different story this tells!!! Now, before we get all crazy on how good the recent days were, we need to understand that there are probably people that died on those days that haven't yet been reported - so these numbers would revise up as that happened. So the only way to really look at the trend is to look about a week and a half back. So Florida isn't as good as the chart above says, but even the spikes a week ago were in the 40s. Not 119 as the media (or some posters here) would have you believe. My work here is done, for now. Happy to discuss.
New Jersey has had one of the lowest transmission and total infection rates in the country for a couple of months and people are still dying from Covid infections they caught months ago. As infections add up and hospital beds fill it will be weeks and weeks of growing fatalities, even as infection rates go down.
Well Florida finally started reporting hospitalization data... Four months into the pandemic, Florida reports current COVID-19 hospitalization data https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244145987.html Ten days after Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration said the state would release current hospitalization data forCOVID-19, Florida’s hospital regulator quietly added the information to itsonline dashboardon Friday afternoon amid a surge of new cases and reports that South Florida hospitals were approaching capacity. The state’s Agency for Health Care Administration, which updates the data in real time, reported at 4 p.m. Friday that 6,974 patients were hospitalized statewide with a “primary diagnosis of COVID.” The data does not distinguish between the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital intensive care units and those in acute care beds, which require less attention from nurses. Until Friday, Florida was one of only three states that did not report current hospitalization data for COVID-19, and the only one to refuse to do it while experiencing a dramatic rise in new cases. (More at above url)
Let's see how things are going with politicians who support DeSantis in Florida... Florida County Commissioner Who Voted Against Masks In Hospital With COVID https://www.newsweek.com/florida-county-commissioner-who-voted-against-masks-hospital-covid-1517121 Paul Waldron—the commissioner for St. Johns County just south of Jacksonville, Florida—has tested positive for COVID-19 and is currently in the hospital in critical condition. Last week, Waldron voted against a countywide order requiring all residents to wear face masks as a way to prevent coronavirus infections. (More at above url)