DeSantis for the win

Tsing Tao · Dec 15, 2021

gwb-trading said:
Delta caused Florida’s worst COVID wave. What will omicron bring?
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256440951.html

At least three cases of the new, little-known-about omicron variant have been reported in Florida, including one in Miami-Dade, just a few months after the state began recovering from the devastating delta wave experienced over the late summer and early fall.

The new variant for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was first detected in South Africa and Botswana last month and as of Tuesday had been detected in 70 countries and 34 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. Since only a small percentage of positive tests are sequenced, experts say it’s safe to assume it is everywhere.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Tuesday that omicron is spreading rapidly and is likely to become the predominant variant in the United States “on the order of weeks.”

Early evidence and preliminary data suggest that while the omicron variant is likely more transmissible than delta, it also seems to be causing milder symptoms.

A newly released report from the CDC examining the 43 U.S. omicron cases concurs with the hypothesis that the new variant is more likely to evade COVID vaccines or antibodies that have developed from a previous infection. Thirty-four of the people infected had completed the primary series of COVID vaccines and six had tested positive in the past.

“It’s really limited data, so we have to be really cautious in how we express this,” said Mary Jo Trepka, an infectious disease expert and professor at Florida International University.

How is omicron detected?

Variants are detected through genomic sequencing — or the study of a virus as it evolves and mutates.

Scientists have found the number of mutations (about 50) in the omicron variant surprising. Most of the mutations seen in omicron are in the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to cells in the body. Some of the mutations had been seen in prior mutations of the virus — many in different lineages of delta.

It’s common for viruses to mutate. The original version of SARS-CoV-2 that was first sequenced in early 2020 has been gone since summer of 2020, according to William Lee, vice president of science at Helix, a population genomics company working with the CDC and local health departments on sequencing COVID-positive PCR tests. Since then, different variants have taken over including alpha, beta and, most recently, delta.

In the United States, delta is still the dominant variant, making up almost 97% of samples sequenced according to data released Tuesday by the CDC. Since it has been the dominant variant for some time, it would be expected for future mutations to have some sort of lineage or sub lineage to the delta variant, according to experts.

“But if you do the phylogenetic analysis and you draw the evolutionary tree, omicron is absolutely not descended from delta,” said Lee. “It’s different enough from different lineages that we’ve seen in the past — and that’s part of why it’s so surprising.”

Although many of the mutations have been seen in different lineages throughout the evolution of the virus, Lee said scientists have never seen all of them in the same lineage, with new mutations as well.

Concern about omicron evading COVID vaccines

The initial hypothesis is that the more mutations there are, the more likely it is that you have some sort of “fitness advantage” that scientists hadn’t seen in the virus, said Lee, referring to the ability for the virus to escape immunity.

“That’s what everyone’s concerned about and what we’re trying to track down.”

Omicron was detected in 3% of samples sequenced by the CDC this past week across the U.S.

In Denmark, where every positive PCR test is sequenced, COVID-19 cases caused by the omicron variant have doubled every other day, and experts say it will become the dominant variant in the country this week.

A study released Tuesday from South Africa found that the variant was more contagious than delta, but caused milder symptoms. However, South Africa has a relatively young population and high immunity from prior infections, so that could play a factor in the findings.

What happened during the delta wave?

The delta variant caused Florida’s worst wave of the coronavirus from late June through mid-October. During that time, more than 20,000 Floridians died of COVID — that’s a little under one-third of all Floridians who have died of COVID-19 since March 2020. As of Tuesday, 62,073 Floridians had died of COVID, according to data published by the CDC.

“Delta left quite a bit of devastation in terms of impact on people and their families,” said Trepka.

On Sept. 1, 2021, the seven-day average of people dying each day peaked at 403 — that was almost twice as many people dying each day than had died during the summer 2020 wave.

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But at a time when vaccines were readily available and mitigation techniques such as masks, handwashing and social distancing were known, delta’s impact was largely avoidable, according to Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology with the USF College of Public Health who has been tracking the data since the beginning of the pandemic.

“When you’re getting to 400 deaths a day when vaccines are available, you start to look at it and say ‘My God, this wave did not need to be anywhere near this bad,’ ” Salemi said.

A lot of the severe illness and deaths could’ve been prevented by encouraging vaccinations and mitigation methods like wearing masks and social distancing, according to Salemi.

While cases were peaking this summer, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis did not implement any mitigation measures like he did during the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. In April 2020, DeSantis issued a stay-at-home order for non-essential workers after then-President Donald Trump extended the White House’s social-distancing guidelines.

In March 2021, the governor canceled all fines related to COVID rules and in September he threatened local municipalities that wanted to impose vaccine mandates. In late July, he banned mask mandates in public schools. While the delta variant became the dominant variant in the state causing surges in hospitalizations and deaths, DeSantis pushed monoclonal antibody treatments for infected individuals to seek out after testing positive.

Last Tuesday at a press conference in Oldsmar in Pinellas County, DeSantis suggested he would tackle omicron the same way, without lockdowns or mask requirements.

“In Florida, we won’t let them lock you down. We won’t let them restrict you,” he said. “We’re not going to let them impose mandates. We’re not going to let them close the schools. We are going to protect your freedom to make your decision.”

In a statement in response to the Herald’s questions about omicron and sequencing, DOH communications director Weesam Khoury reiterated the state’s monoclonal antibody stance as a treatment to COVID and mentioned vaccines as a preventative measure.

DeSantis has touted monoclonal antibody treatment to treat COVID in its early stages and prevent hospitalizations. But Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, which produces one of the monoclonal antibody treatment drugs the state uses, said in a statement in late November that the drug could be less effective against omicron. Sotrovimab, a similar drug made by British company GlaxoSmithKline that has been used in Florida, is effective against omicron, according to data released by the company last week.

Lack of public-facing data

One of the biggest problems in studying the virus in Florida is the lack of data available to the public, including data on variants, breakthrough infections and vaccination status for cases and deaths, according to experts.

DOH does not publicly release data on variants, but through the threat of a lawsuit from a consortium of media companies including the Herald, it provides biweekly reports that include how many variants and lineages have been detected by its three state labs and some private labs. Public health experts say, however, these reports are not useful as they do not indicate how many samples were sequenced in each period.

The department also used to publish case line data, which included details regarding each case of COVID detected in Florida, but it has not updated that data since 2020.

In a statement, the department said it still collects the data that DOH epidemiologists have access to.

“The Department collects data that is relevant to an epidemiological investigation. We collect vaccination status, including the number of doses and date of vaccination, for all cases when that information is available,” said a portion of the statement.

Experts like Salemi say having access to case line data that include vaccination status on each case would allow researchers to better understand the situation and make the appropriate recommendations.

“In order to really know what’s driving spread, who needs to be concerned and why, we need to know how many cases are happening among people with different vaccine-acquired immunity and about reinfections,” he said.

A University of Florida report released last week revealed that researchers faced external pressure to destroy COVID-19 data and described “barriers” to accessing, analyzing and publishing the numbers. UF professors were also told not to criticize the governor or the state’s COVID policies in the media

. Data on reinfection would also be beneficial to understanding whether variants like omicron are good at evading immunity, as is expected. Currently, the department only includes people who have tested positive once in its public-facing data, meaning if a person tested positive in May 2020 and then tested positive again in June, they would still only be counted as one case.

Cases ticking up

Cases have been rising across the country for a couple of weeks, overwhelming hospitals in states like Michigan. Florida, experts say, had fared well until recently since it experienced the delta wave in the late summer.

But in the last two weeks, cases have begun to tick up slightly in the state, a change from the stagnant case rates Florida had seen over the last two months.

On Tuesday, the state’s seven-day average for cases added each day was 2,305 — the highest it has been since mid-October and about 58% higher from the average just two weeks prior.

It’s still unclear whether this recent uptick has anything to do with the omicron variant. Since Miami-Dade County began doing its own sequencing with Nomi Health with positive PCR samples dating back to Oct. 31, the delta variant has been detected in all 746 samples.

What next?

Though public health experts don’t yet know the extent to which this variant is more transmissible, they agree that individuals should be taking the same precautions as before and that Floridians should learn from the devastating delta surge.

“We don’t have to look that far at all in the rearview mirror for a lesson,” Salemi said.

Though the CDC still defines “fully vaccinated” as an individual who has received one dose of Johnson & Johnson or two doses of Pfizer or Moderna, Salemi and many other scientists nationwide say it is time for that to change.

Last Wednesday, the same day Pfizer released a study that said three doses of their vaccine was able to neutralize omicron, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an interview on CNN that it is “a matter of when, not if,” the definition will change. “I don’t think anybody would argue that optimal protection is going to be with a third shot,” he said.

About 9.3 million Floridians have received one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine or two doses of Pfizer or Moderna. Another 3.4 million have received boosters, according to DOH. A Herald data analysis recently revealed that Miami-Dade’s vaccination numbers are likely an overestimate.

Regardless of what omicron brings, experts say individuals should follow the same protocols that have been in place since the beginning of the pandemic, at least until more is known: Get vaccinated (and boosted if you’re able), wear a mask, and keep social gatherings outdoors.

“I’m hopeful that omicron isn’t going to be dangerous or as likely to cause severe illness ... but if it is, we need to prepare for that,” said Salemi.
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gwb-trading · Dec 15, 2021

Florida Adds Over 3,000 New Daily Covid Cases, Most Since Mid-October
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...y-covid-cases-most-since-mid-october/2641506/

Tsing Tao · Dec 16, 2021

gwb-trading said:
Florida Adds Over 3,000 New Daily Covid Cases, Most Since Mid-October
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...y-covid-cases-most-since-mid-october/2641506/
More...

How many cases have the other states added?

*silence*

gwb-trading · Dec 16, 2021

Tsing Tao said:
How many cases have the other states added?

*silence*
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Not only did Florida exceed the CDC's projected total for state Covid deaths for Thanksgiving week (which led the nation) -- they now have increasing number of cases every day. This is quite an accomplishment. Florida will be the only state which experienced two Covid waves in the second half of 2021 -- a time period where other states only experienced one wave. Great job, DeSantis.

Wednesday Florida COVID update: Highest single-day case report since October
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256608241.html

Florida reported 4,127 COVID-19 cases and one new death on Tuesday, according to Wednesday’s report to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, based on Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

That’s the most cases for a single day report since 4,797 on Oct. 10. Other days that were higher since then combined the reports from multiple days.

In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,724,273 confirmed COVID cases and 62,074 deaths.

In the past seven days, the state has added 41 deaths and 2,625 cases per day, on average, according to Herald calculations of CDC data. The seven-day case average is the highest since Oct. 15. It’s also the third consecutive day that the seven-day average has risen and exceeded the seven-day average of any day in November or December.

El OchoCinco · Dec 16, 2021

Tsing Tao said:
How many cases have the other states added?

*silence*
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I think the South and West will definitely do better relative to the North and Midwest since winter has already hit pretty hard pushing more people inside in more contact with each other. The West and the South are behind Northeast and Midwest in case counts and the only difference between these 4 regions is weather not politics.

From Cali along the southt o Florida you guys are still seeing great warm weather while the Midwest already had snow and Northeast is in the 40s. Add to that holiday shopping and indoor sports. Social distancing really goes right out the window in colder weather.

I think the issue of vaccination rates is like doing regression analysis and not accounting for other variables and forcing a regression into the data. It is too difficult to take into account population density, climate, vaccination rates, tourism, and people movement to develop a true tracking for anyone to claim an area is doing it right or wrong.

Hotspots keep changing as the weather moves across the U.S. just like last year. Look at the chart below on cases per 100,000 by region. Midwest and Northeast lead the spikes going into the colder weather and then the South and West follow right behind and moved HIGHER for a bit. South had the bigger spike in late summer early Fall but exepcted given less social distancing, masks and vaccine rates. The other 4 regions were way better than the South this time around going into OCT.

MWest and NE are leading the mini surge as weather turned colder but we shoudl probably expect the South and West to catch up by January. The South Spet spike is interesting as it is one of two times they spiked completely on their own both in the summer months. I think being outdoors but congregated at beaches or other events get them all spiked.

Question is whether South and West will begin their 1 month lag of cases surging after the holidays.

Tsing Tao · Dec 16, 2021

El OchoCinco said:
I think the South and West will definitely do better relative to the North and Midwest since winter has already hit pretty hard pushing more people inside in more contact with each other. The West and the South are behind Northeast and Midwest in case counts and the only difference between these 4 regions is weather not politics.

From Cali along the southt o Florida you guys are still seeing great warm weather while the Midwest already had snow and Northeast is in the 40s. Add to that holiday shopping and indoor sports. Social distancing really goes right out the window in colder weather.

I think the issue of vaccination rates is like doing regression analysis and not accounting for other variables and forcing a regression into the data. It is too difficult to take into account population density, climate, vaccination rates, tourism, and people movement to develop a true tracking for anyone to claim an area is doing it right or wrong.

Hotspots keep changing as the weather moves across the U.S. just like last year. Look at the chart below on cases per 100,000 by region. Midwest and Northeast lead the spikes going into the colder weather and then the South and West follow right behind and moved HIGHER for a bit. South had the bigger spike in late summer early Fall but exepcted given less social distancing, masks and vaccine rates. The other 4 regions were way better than the South this time around going into OCT.

MWest and NE are leading the mini surge as weather turned colder but we shoudl probably expect the South and West to catch up by January. The South Spet spike is interesting as it is one of two times they spiked completely on their own both in the summer months. I think being outdoors but congregated at beaches or other events get them all spiked.

Question is whether South and West will begin their 1 month lag of cases surging after the holidays.

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Spot on. In the summer, we go inside away from the heat. You guys go outside. Reverses in the winter (unless we get a really cold one - not so far). Virus is seasonal and has to do with fresh air and sunshine and people close together. Not rocket science.

This is also why I laugh at the lockdowns - forcing people together - and masks.

El OchoCinco · Dec 16, 2021

Tsing Tao said:
Spot on. In the summer, we go inside away from the heat. You guys go outside. Reverses in the winter (unless we get a really cold one - not so far). Virus is seasonal and has to do with fresh air and sunshine and people close together. Not rocket science.

This is also why I laugh at the lockdowns - forcing people together - and masks.
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Well a lockdown is not taking everyone and putting them all in the same place cramped together. Initially it was closing everything down so people would NOT be forced together.

Tsing Tao · Dec 16, 2021

El OchoCinco said:
Well a lockdown is not taking everyone and putting them all in the same place cramped together. Initially it was closing everything down so people would NOT be forced together.
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Ideally. but when you lock people down, they're going to be in their house with their families, roomates, etc. And lets face it, no lockdown is 100%. So they go around and shop for groceries and stuff, and then come home to sit with each other.

And get sick.

gwb-trading · Dec 17, 2021

Tsing Tao said:
Spot on. In the summer, we go inside away from the heat. You guys go outside. Reverses in the winter (unless we get a really cold one - not so far). Virus is seasonal and has to do with fresh air and sunshine and people close together. Not rocket science.

This is also why I laugh at the lockdowns - forcing people together - and masks.
More...

Yet every day the cases increase at a rapid rate in Florida. Let's see the latest.

Florida COVID update: Biggest jump in cases since September, with 6,381 added
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256653962.html

Florida on Thursday reported 117 more deaths and 6,381 additional COVID-19 cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

This is the largest dump of newly reported cases since September. The CDC backlogs cases and deaths for Florida on Tuesdays and Thursdays, sometimes leading to big increases.

All but three of the newly reported deaths — about 97% — occurred since Nov. 18, according to the Herald analysis. About 63% of the newly reported have died in the past two weeks, the analysis showed.

In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,730,654 confirmed COVID cases and 62,191 deaths. In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 26 deaths and 3,207 cases per day on average, according to Herald calculations of CDC data.

gwb-trading · Dec 17, 2021

Looks like DeSantis' favorite AFLD state surgeon general is also beloved by Tucker. Let's see Ladapo peddle more misinformation live on the air -- as cases in Florida quickly drive to new heights.

Tucker Pats Florida Surgeon General on Back as COVID Numbers Explode
https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucke...o-on-the-back-as-states-covid-numbers-explode

Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo appeared on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show Thursday night and was praised for his state’s COVID-19 response—as Florida deals with an explosion of new cases from the Omicron variant.

After being hit extremely hard by the Delta variant over the summer, Florida eventually saw caseloads and deaths plunge during the fall months—prompting Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ladapo to justify and celebrate their hands-off approach to the pandemic. While criticizing highly vaccinated states like New York over their recent spike in new cases, Carlson lauded Florida for having “one of the lowest rates of COVID in the country” while rejecting vaccine and mask mandates.

At the end of the softball interview, which featured the two laughing as an on-air graphic blared “How Florida Is Handling COVID the Right Way,” Carlson offered up a closing thought: “I cannot wait until you run HHS. I will come to your swearing-in. Doctor, thank you.”

Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases are rising faster in Florida than in just about any other state, increasing 100 percent in the past two weeks compared to 40 percent for the rest of the nation, according The New York Times database. Drive-thru COVID testing sites in Miami have also experienced incredibly long lines in recent days.

(Article has video)