800 people, so they believe based on their opinion that they will make sure within that 800 they will have registered Dems, registered GOP, old and young, women and men, white, latino, black, other, independents all represented accurately in just 800 people.... They pre chose the sample on the assumption they can use a sample that best represents the state of Florida (assumption...). If the sample was chosen at random then randomness could mean a majority of voters happen to be GOP or a majority of an other group which also skews the results. You sound like you have some econometrics background as I do but I still have not seen any proof that a 800 sample size collected based on assumptions of who should be in the sample size being asked an opinion question can be measured with statistical accuracy such as R-squared or Z scores. Taking 800 trading days data of a specific security has fixed data where you can run statistical analysis and even regression analysis though there are still issues with such a sample size in trading. 800 people polled on whether you think DeSantis is doing a good job is a pretty faulty survey further proven by some magicl inference that the poll has a standard of deviation of error....on an opinion...of 800 people...out of 14,000,000 registered voters...
Florida starts turning on DeSantis https://www.politico.com/states/flo...oses-pile-up-as-delta-ravages-florida-1390539 TALLAHASSEE — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been untouchable for the past year as he commanded the Republican culture wars to become heir apparent to Donald Trump. The latest coronavirus surge is starting to change that. Covid infection rates continue to climb as the state faces shortages of health care staff, morgue space and even oxygen for patients. About 16,000 people are hospitalized. Child infection rates have shot up. School districts — even in Republican strongholds — have rebelled against DeSantis’ anti-mask mandates. And cruise lines are resisting DeSantis’ vaccine passport ban. Even his recent poll numbers are slipping. It’s new terrain for a Republican governor who defied dire expectation during the first wave of Covid-19 but has continued his hands-off approach as the more contagious Delta variant infects large swaths of Florida’s unvaccinated population. The most recent defeat came Friday when Leon County Circuit Court Judge John Cooper ruled DeSantis can’t punish school districts for passing mask mandates, as his administration had threatened after instituting emergency rules aimed at banning mask mandates in schools. The DeSantis administration has said those districts are breaking the law, an assertion directly refuted in a blistering ruling from Cooper read from the bench during a nearly two hour hearing. The multi-front Covid-19 battle is becoming inextricably linked to DeSantis’ 2022 re-election bid, and more broadly his future White House aspirations. The governor remains popular with conservatives across the country and in Florida, but his steadfast refusal to implement Covid-related restrictions amid hundreds of virus-related deaths in the state and rising infection numbers has the potential to threaten his electability. “There’s no question it’s impacting him politically,” said a Republican consultant who has previously worked with DeSantis and requested anonymity to speak freely. “You can tout all the freedom and anti-lockdown that you want. There’s no political strategy for sick kids and tired parents.” A Quinnipiac University poll released this month had DeSantis’ approval rating dipping below 50 percent, with 47 percent approving of his job performance, and 45 percent disapproving. Those numbers dropped to 44-51 when asked about his handling of public schools. The Quinnipiac poll follows other public polling that shows a similar erosion to DeSantis’ approval rating. A St. Pete Polls survey earlier this month showed 43 percent approved of the job he was doing while 48 percent did not. The poll also brought bad news for President Joe Biden, who is the frequent target of criticism from DeSantis. Biden’s approval rating sits at 40 percent in Florida, while 53 percent disapprove of his job performance. The poll was conducted between Aug. 17 and 21, a time when Biden was facing heavy criticism over his withdrawal from Afghanistan, an issue that has kept the national news cycle from focusing on DeSantis and Florida’s Covid-19 situation. Yet DeSantis has focused in recent weeks on traversing the state to tout new sites that deliver the monoclonal antibody treatment. The treatment can reduce the likelihood that a Covid-19 patient lands in the hospital if it is given shortly after infection. But it is far less effective than vaccines at preventing severe illness and death. The state has so far opened up 21 of the sites and the conservative media outlet One America News Network will air a 2-day series on the treatments with the title “America's Governor & Florida's Grit: How Antibody Therapy Combats COVID-19.” “We think the thing that has the most impact to keep people out of the hospital and save lives is to really make sure this early treatment is something people have access to,” DeSantis told reporters Thursday. “Even with a massive number of people vaccinated, you still have prevalence.” “It’s going to be part of life,” DeSantis added. His fight with schools over masking children, however has also escalated. Already, 10 school districts have bucked the governor over his order banning schools from implementing mask mandates, including Sarasota County and Indian River County school districts, which are in conservative-leaning regions of the state. But Cooper, the judge who ruled against DeSantis Friday, opened the door for more local defiance. Cooper not only ruled against the administration, but said that previous legislation DeSantis-championed known as the “Parents Bill of Rights” actually allows districts to craft their own mask policies. “A school district, adopting a policy, such as a mask mandate, is acting within its discretion it has been given by the Florida Legislature in the Parents Bill of Rights,” Cooper said. “"The doctrine of separation of powers requires that the discretionary power exercised by the school board, cannot be interfered by the judiciary, or by the executive branch of government.” DeSantis communications director Taryn Fenske said they would appeal. “It’s not surprising that Judge Cooper would rule against parent’s rights and their ability to make the best educational and medical decisions for their family, but instead rule in favor of elected politicians,” she said. “This ruling was made with incoherent justifications, not based on science and facts.” Infection rates for kids under 12, who are not yet eligible for the vaccine, last week increased to 23 percent, up from an average of 15 percent since March 1. Nearly 17,000 Covid-19 patients are in hospitals, far above the 2020 peak. And Florida’s nearly 1,500 deaths reported last week was by far the biggest single seven-day increase since the state started reporting Covid-19 data. DeSantis' losses over Covid-19 policy have not been confined to land. Disney, one of Florida’s largest Republican donors, this week joined Carnival, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean in requiring vaccines for passengers older than 12. The wave of cruise operators requiring vaccines was, in part, prompted by vaccination requirements for cruise passengers put in place by the government of the Bahamas, which is the first stop for most major cruise ships. It’s a direct violation of DeSantis-pressed legislation that bars vaccine passports as well as guidance from the federal government over cruise ship safety. Earlier this month, a federal judge in Miami blocked Florida from enforcing the law against Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, a ruling that gave cover for other industry operators — like Disney — to go against DeSantis’ wishes on vaccine passports. Attorneys for DeSantis plan to appeal the decision. DeSantis has continued to use the pandemic to help what has been a well-oiled political fundraising machine. Most recently, the governor’s political committee sent a fundraising email based on a feud he had with the Associated Press, which published a story implying DeSantis was boosting monoclonal antibody treatments to help a political donor. That story was met with a blistering response from DeSantis press secretary Christina Pushaw, whose attack on the reporter who wrote the story landed her a 12 hour Twitter suspension and prompted the wire service to send a letter to DeSantis asking his office to stop “bullying” reporters. The governor’s political rivals are also keying in on the pandemic, with Rep. Charlie Crist and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, DeSantis’ top 2022 Democratic rivals, turning their focus to the administration’s response. “Governor DeSantis has made it clear that he wants to put politics over keeping schools open and keeping our economy strong,” Crist’s campaign said in an email. “But today’s ruling makes clear that he’s overstepped his authority.”
After disagreeing with DeSantis in early 2020 about public health policy, Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees was never allowed to issue public statements or appear in press conferences. The governor never used him for guiding state strategy. The position -- in middle of a pandemic -- was basically turned into a no-show job by DeSantis. Florida's missing-in-action surgeon general surfaces, to say he's quitting https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story...s-resigns-covid-19-challenged-job/5619138001/ There’s a job opening that you may be interested in. Being the next Florida surgeon general may sound pretty daunting. You might even imagine that you’re not qualified. But trust me, there’s less than meets the eye here. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, Florida’s surgeon general gig has apparently been converted to a no-show job, the kind of position that comes with a title and very little power. Florida's surgeon general missing in action The governor’s office announced this week that the current occupant, Dr. Scott Rivkees, is stepping down next month. I’d say we’re sorry to see him go, but nobody was even sure he was still there. His resignation announcement was more of a confirmation that Rivkees was still alive. Before the announcement of his departure, he had been missing for so long, he was running the risk of being the subject of a Silver Alert to Florida motorists or getting his face put on the side of milk cartons. Rivkees, who was appointed two years ago, disappeared April 13, 2020, moments after addressing the public about the then-new COVID-19 pandemic. “We don’t have a vaccine at the present time, so our mitigation measure is the social distancing,” Rivkees said at a news briefing in the Capitol. “As long as we’re going to have COVID in the environment — and this is a tough virus — we’re going to have to practice these measures so that we are all protected … “Based on what has been reported, probably a year if not longer is what some individuals have talked about,” Rivkees said. Florida’s chief medical officer talking about virus-mitigation measures lasting for a year or more practically led to kidnappers throwing a pillowcase over his head and tossing him into the back seat of a waiting car. Rivkees didn’t even get to stay for the end of his briefing. He was spirited away immediately by a Gov. Ron DeSantis staffer on the pretext of attending a “meeting,” later determined by public records to have violated the space-time continuum by occurring hours earlier in the day. Politics, not science, behind Florida's COVID response Rivkees was not aware at the time that the medical authority in the state of Florida regarding the highly transmissible airborne virus wasn’t him. It was Dr. DeSantis, who received his medical degree by attending night classes at The Fox News School of Medicine. And even though Rivkees proved to be right, he was decidedly off-message with the virus-be-damned public stance the Florida’s governor was working so hard to cultivate as his political brand. After that April kidnapping, we’re not sure if Rivkees got the hint and went into an extended period of hiding or hibernation. Or maybe he was kept in a cement-block cell at a black site controlled by the people who make DeSantis’ “Don’t Fauci My Florida” beer koozies. But we do know that Rivkees was decidedly absent for more than a year. All while Florida’s COVID-19 infection numbers went from bad to worse as DeSantis stubbornly failed to stress the importance of available vaccinations and mask-wearing mitigation, while promoting ridiculous freedom-to-infect arguments and post-infection treatments that do nothing to stop the spread. Rivkees, a pediatrician by trade, should have had a lot to say as DeSantis threatened to punish school districts that defied his mask-optional order. But Rivkees was missing in action. Maybe he was locked up or exiled on a remote island. The Tampa Bay Times examined DeSantis' emails during the first six months of this year and found that the governor didn’t have a single one-on-one meeting with Rivkees that whole time. But during that same period, DeSantis had one-on-one conversations with Fox News personalities Sean Hannity eight times, Laura Ingraham seven times and Tucker Carlson six times. Rivkees falls in line with Florida's anti-mask leadership Some people say there may have been a Rivkees sighting earlier this month. That’s because somebody claiming to be Rivkees signed on to the decidedly anti-science rule promoted by Florida’s Secretary of Education Richard Corcoran to enshrine the nonexistent constitutional right of parents to keep their unmasked kids in school. “The rule directs that any COVID-19 mitigation actions taken by school districts comply with the Parents’ Bill of Rights, and ensures that parents’ right to make decisions regarding the masking of their children is protected,” it said. An unshackled Rivkees would have certainly sounded the alarm, calling this a dangerous rule that is neither based in law nor science, and one that needlessly risks the lives of teachers, school personnel and students. (A Leon County judge agreed Friday, overturning DeSantis' prohibition against school districts imposing mask mandates.) But instead, we’re led to believe that Rivkees signed onto this blow against public health with this written statement: “The health and well-being of our students and educators is of incredible importance, and this rule outlines safety protocols that will allow our children to remain in the school setting,” Rivkees' statement read. What safety protocols? The safety protocol is the mask. Creating a rule that allows parents to exempt their kids from wearing masks is the degradation of a safety protocol. I’m pretty sure that no self-respecting pediatrician would have signed onto this without being under duress. I suspect Rivkees might have had battery terminals connected to his groin while issuing this statement. Or this was an imposter filling in for the long-absent medical official, who had realized for more than a year that he was expected to function as a bystander to Florida’s COVID response, not a player. If that sounds like something you’d like to do — or more accurately, not do — the job is open. If you’re the kind of person who is willing to jump in, then check out, we can’t wait to hear what you don’t have to say.
What Went Wrong With the Pandemic in Florida Even a large state that emphasized vaccinations in combating the coronavirus can be crushed by the Delta variant when no other measures are put in place. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/28/us/florida-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccines-variant.html MIAMI — The unexpected and unwelcome coronavirus surge now unfolding in the United States has hit hardest in states that were slow to embrace vaccines. And then there is Florida. While leaders in that state also refused lockdowns and mask orders, they made it a priority to vaccinate vulnerable older people. Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, opened mass vaccination sites and sent teams to retirement communities and nursing homes. Younger people also lined up for shots. Mr. DeSantis and public health experts expected a rise in cases this summer as people gathered indoors in the air-conditioning. But what happened was much worse: Cases spiraled out of control, reaching peaks higher than Florida had seen before. Hospitalizations followed. So did deaths, which are considerably higher than the numbers currently reached anywhere else in the country. “It’s a very sad, sad moment for all of us,” said Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at Emory University who until recently worked at the University of Florida and has closely followed the pandemic in the state. “It was really hard to imagine us ever getting back to this place.” The Florida story is a cautionary tale for dealing with the current incarnation of the coronavirus. The United States has used the vaccines as its primary pandemic weapon. But Florida shows that even a state that made a major push for vaccinations — Florida ranks 21st among states and Washington, D.C., in giving people of all ages at least one shot — can be crushed by the Delta variant, reaching frightening levels of hospitalizations and deaths. “Clearly the vaccines are keeping most of these people out of the hospital, but we’re not building the herd immunity that people hoped,” Mr. DeSantis said at a news conference this past week. “You’ve got a huge percentage of people — adults — that have gotten shots, and yet you’ve still seen a wave.” Morgues and crematories are full or getting there. Public utilities in Orlando and Tampa have asked residents to cut back on water usage so liquid oxygen, which is used in water treatment, can be conserved for hospitals. As of Friday, Florida was recording an average of 242 virus deaths a day, nearly as many as California and Texas combined, though a few states still had a higher per capita rate, according to public health data tracked by The New York Times. Florida’s pandemic data, more scant since the state ended its declared Covid-19 state of emergency in June, reveals only limited information about who is dying. Hospitals have said upward of 90 percent of their patients have been unvaccinated. Exactly why the state has been so hard-hit remains an elusive question. Other states with comparable vaccine coverage have a small fraction of Florida’s hospitalization rate. The best explanation of what has happened is that Florida’s vaccination rates were good, but not good enough for its demographics. It has so many older people that even vaccinating a vast majority of them left more than 800,000 unprotected. Vaccination rates among younger people were uneven, so clusters of people remained at risk. Previous virus waves, which were milder than in some other states, conferred only some natural immunity. And Florida is Florida: People have enjoyed many months of barhopping, party-going and traveling, all activities conducive to swift virus spread. Unlike in places like Oregon, which is clamping down again, adopting even outdoor mask mandates, Mr. DeSantis continues to stay the course, hoping to power through despite the devastating human toll. A Quinnipiac University poll released this past week found that Mr. DeSantis’s approval rating was 47 percent. He and other state officials have sought to steer away from measures that could curtail infections, banning strict mask mandates in public schools. The biggest school districts imposed them anyway, and on Friday, a state judge ruled that Florida could not prevent those mandates, a decision the Department of Education plans to appeal. Florida has experienced more deaths than normal — from all causes, not just Covid-19 — throughout the pandemic. In the early weeks of 2021, with cases surging and the vaccine rollout kicking off, the state averaged 5,600 deaths each week, about a third more than typical for that time of year, according to mortality figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The deaths dropped and then went back up. These excess deaths are important, both because a number of Covid-19 deaths occur outside hospitals, and because the virus may contribute to deaths from other causes as a result of the strain on the health system. In the first week of August, the state recorded another 5,600 deaths. But because mortality rates normally drop during summer months, the figure was more than 50 percent above what’s typical. “We’re seeing a ton of people calling us to report the Covid deaths,” said Dr. Stephen J. Nelson, the Polk County medical examiner. “They’re typically young people that have been sick for a while.” The picture of who is dying, however, is complicated. About 82 percent of people 65 and older in the state are fully vaccinated, about average for the nation. That has still left a relatively large number of older people — about 819,000 — unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated, said Jason L. Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida. If the unvaccinated also take fewer other precautions, he added, that would put them directly in the virus’s path. “The Delta variant is exceptional at finding vulnerable populations,” he said. The situation in nursing homes, where infections can spread swiftly, has also been problematic. While vaccination rates among older Floridians as a whole have been good, the rate of nursing home residents who are fully vaccinated — an average of 73.1 percent in each home — is lower than every state but Nevada, according to the C.D.C. About 47.5 percent of nursing home staff members were fully vaccinated as of Aug. 15, the lowest of any state but Louisiana. Older people are also more likely to have immune deficiencies and comorbidities, making them more susceptible to breakthrough infections and hospitalizations, noted Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. And some, though not all, data have suggested that immunity against infection has waned in older, vaccinated adults; the Biden administration has indicated that those people will be among the first in line for booster shots. Then there are the younger people, who now make up a larger share of Florida virus deaths. Before June 25, people under 65 made up 22 percent of deaths. Since then, that proportion has risen to 28 percent. Fifty-six percent of people between the ages of 12 and 64 in Florida’s 10 largest counties are fully vaccinated, which is consistent with national figures. But in the rest of the state, that figure is only 43 percent, and in 27 counties, less than 1 in 3 residents in the age group is fully vaccinated. The heart-wrenching deaths of children remain rare. The deaths of young and middle-aged adults have become routine. “My mom had no prior illnesses — she was strong as an ox,” said Tré Burrows, whose 50-year-old mother, Cindy Dawkins, died from Covid-19 on Aug. 7. “There was literally nothing wrong with her. This just came out of nowhere.” Ms. Dawkins, a mother of four who worked in a restaurant in Boynton Beach, began to feel ill shortly before her birthday, as the family was en route to celebrate in Orlando. Ms. Dawkins developed a cough and shortness of breath. Four days later, she went to a hospital. Doctors placed her on a ventilator. Thirty-two hours later, she was dead. Her son said she had not gotten vaccinated because she feared possible side effects. Those who did not get vaccinated are only part of the explanation behind the surge. Many states slammed by the virus earlier developed deep reservoirs of natural immunity from prior infections, affording them higher levels of protection than would be evident from vaccination rates alone. Not so in Florida. Compared to other states, Florida was spared as devastating a wintertime wave of cases as ravaged other parts of the country — in part because warm weather made it possible for people to gather outdoors. That was a boon to Florida’s economy and its political leaders but a liability come summertime, when the state was unable to rely on the same wall of natural immunity that is now helping to shield places walloped by the virus this winter. “People have underestimated the role of natural immunity,” Dr. Chin-Hong said. “Wherever you get hit hard, you kind of get a reprieve from the virus.” There is some question as to whether Florida’s vaccination rates, especially in places like Miami and Orlando, might have been inflated by tourists getting shots. Regardless, vaccinations appear to be making Covid-19 cases less severe in Miami-Dade County, which had one of the state’s highest vaccination rates, according to research by Dr. Jeffrey Harris, a physician and emeritus professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Beyond that, the hot weather has driven people indoors and attracted hordes of vacationers, creating the conditions for Delta to spread. For all of the focus on vaccines, scientists said, the virus’s path remains highly dependent on how closely people are packed together, where people are congregating and what precautions they are taking. For other states whose residents will head indoors as temperatures drop in the fall and winter, Florida offers an important lesson, Dr. Dean said: As in the beginning of the pandemic, hospitalizations need to be kept in check. “The minimum thing we should be achieving is to keep those hospitalization numbers low so it’s not straining the health care system, because that doesn’t just affect Covid patients — it affects everyone,” she said. And policymakers, she said, must realize that vaccination rates need to be higher than previously thought to control a more contagious virus variant. “Things can get out of hand,” she said. “I do believe that this could happen in other states, too.”
Some more good news for Florida.... let's hope the downward trend continues. However it is difficult to tell what is occurring in Florida since DeSantis will not allow the state to release daily Covid data -- and he has stymied the Feds as much as possible in providing data. For example the U.S. Health & Human Services has to track Florida hospitalization data with information directly from 253 hospitals since the state refuses to provide this data -- of course this is not a complete collection of all the hospitals in Florida. At least 7 hospitals are not reporting data to U.S. Health & Human Services. After record for new COVID cases, Florida sees 3 days with fewer https://www.local10.com/news/florid...w-covid-cases-florida-sees-3-days-with-fewer/
DeSantis and his administration are idiots. Defying the judge's order opens the door for significant federal action. Florida defies judge and punishes 2 school districts over masks https://www.politico.com/states/flo...ishes-two-school-districts-over-masks-1390582 The Florida Department of Education on Monday defied a recent ruling from a state judge and leveled its first sanctions against school board members who rejected the DeSantis administration’s orders on local mask mandates. State officials withheld monthly salaries from board members in Alachua and Broward counties who supported the mask requirements, marking a major turning point in the weekslong fight over face coverings in schools. “We’re going to fight to protect parents' rights to make health care decisions for their children,” Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran said in a statement. "What’s unacceptable is the politicians who have raised their right hands and pledged, under oath, to uphold the Constitution but are not doing so.” The fines come even as a circuit court judge on Friday ruled the DeSantis administration lacked authority to punish schools for implementing up mask mandates. DeSantis had vowed to appeal the decision, but the sanctions leveled Monday from the education department appears to be a repudiation of the judge’s ruling. The judge in that case, Leon County Circuit Judge John Cooper, ruled from the bench on Friday and an official order has yet to be posted by the court. The move by the state department of education is the latest development in the weekslong fight over masking students in Florida amid the surge in coronavirus cases. Already, 11 counties have rejected the governor’s rules preventing schools from mandating masks, including school districts in three Republican-leaning counties. The battle has also roped in the Biden administration, which has pledged to financially support local school boards that are punished, igniting a clash between Washington and the GOP governor. Even before the state announced it was taking away salaries, Republican-leaning Brevard County on Monday approved a mask mandate for students after striking down the idea just two weeks ago. Alachua and Broward were the first two school boards to pass mask mandates in the face of an executive order and emergency rules from the DeSantis administration that sought to block local Covid-19 measures. In Broward county, the monthly pay for a school board member is about $3,897. The DeSantis administration argues that the “Parents’ Bill of Rights” measure, approved by the GOP-dominated Florida Legislature and signed into law earlier this year, prohibits schools from mandating masks.
Well -- then Monday arrived. Florida COVID update: 902 deaths added, most from past month, as hospitalizations rise Florida on Monday reported 31,164 more COVID-19 cases and 902 deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253851358.html
The peak happened almost exactly where I said it would. Now, the fun will be seeing the spin when the spikes come up north in a month and a half. I'm sure we'll blame that on DeSantis too.