"So, in terms of the Orange County medical examiner’s office, I know that not just through the COVID-19 deaths but deaths may be up in general across the county.”
I tend to agree that from a "getting elected" perspective -- polling is only meaningful much closer to the election. Popularity polls for politicians will regularly swing up & down by 10 points or more as they encounter (and either handle or mishandle) crises throughout their terms in office -- does not matter if it is DeSantis or Biden (who is hitting lows due to Afganistan) or anyone else in higher state-wide or national positions.
800 in the group meant to infer the patterns of millions of voters. The statistical significance is impossible to determine with accuracy on an opinion poll. Imagine using 800 days of data to create a trading model with a high R-square or statistical significance. That is based on factual past data and creating a model to fit the data. asking 800 people what their OPINION is on a candidate is by definition a sample size of the larger population with the INFERENCE that 800 people can speak for a few million. That is quite a statistical leap that hold little credibility to be honest. Simply saying a 3.5% margin of error is a false variance implied into the data, not one that is supported by proof that these 800 truly represent the larger population.
DeSantis lost again... what lawyers are advising him....Rudy? DeSantis rule banning some local mask mandates overturned by Florida court Judge says the ban violates parent's bill of rights
Assuming the 800 were chosen randomly from the whole, they do represent the whole, for the same questions, to the degree of confidence indicated. For 150 million voters, a sample size of 2400 or more would be ideal, yes.
After the previous Florida Surgeon General left his position due to Gov. DeSantis excluding him from events and decisions --- simply due to Scott Rivkees providing proper pandemic guidance early in 2020 on social distancing and proper public health practices -- it will be hard to find a proper medical professional to step up and fill the position. DeSantis will probably just fill the role with some obscene quack like a "doctor" from the "America's Frontline Doctors" crowd. Finding a new Florida surgeon general amid the pandemic could be difficult https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article253801758.html
A Florida teacher in a school district where 3 educators died in a single day slams Gov. DeSantis' mask war: 'I haven't had kids in 41 years ever act that immature' https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-teacher-slams-governor-ron-desantis-mask-mandate-war-2021-8
There is no accurate way to account for statistical significance with a small sample size to infer a large population when the sample size is determined by opinion and self classification. R squared and Z scores are meaningless based on opinion data versus hard data.
Let's see what a local health official has to say in Florida. No sign of a peak yet in Florida; they need the vaccination level to go up. DeSantis should be strongly focusing on vaccinations. Interesting to note in the article that the percentage of Floridians wearing maks has risen to 42% as of August 17th. So at least responsible people are attempting to take actions to protect the health of society in Florida. Health official alarmed at COVID vaccination levels, sees no end in sight https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story...cination-levels-sees-no-end-sight/5619857001/