https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...low-which-covid-19-outbreaks-start-accelerate Goldman Pinpoints Temperature Below Which COVID-19 Outbreaks Start To Accelerate In a recent note to clients, a team of researchers at Goldman Sachs took a close look at temperatures and studied whether there was a correlation with temperatures. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the team found a strong negative correlation between confirmed cases and temperature, with the number of the former going up while the number for the latter goes down. As the regression modeled by Goldman shows, the further temperatures drop with a modest lag between the summer and the winter, the more extreme the surge in COVID-19 cases. This applies in both the US and Europe. Using fixed effects modeling, the Goldman team then tried to strip out other factors to try and isolate and expose the influence of temperature on case growth. Interestingly enough, the analysts analysis found that no matter the difference in statewide policies and enforcement, cases appeared to wax and wane along with changes in temperature, appearing to resist most efforts to control the virus.
When the temperature drops more people are inside which increases the spread of the virus. When the temperature is warmer people are outside which reduces the spread of the virus. Quite simple.
In case you didn’t read the article “Interestingly enough, the analysts analysis found that now matter the difference in statewide policies and enforcement, cases appeared to wax and wane along with changes in temperature, appearing to resist most efforts to control the virus.”
And as outlined in other articles the changes in temperature drive changes in people’s behavior which causes outbreaks of the virus to wax and wane.
As a more complete follow-up.... Multiple research studies have been undertaken to measure the impact of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 virus survival. There are also studies regarding direct sunlight and various surfaces on COVID virus survival. The conclusion of these studies is that the impact of temperature, sunlight, and humidity on COVID is pretty similar to other coronavirus types (e.g the common cold) and other viruses such as the flu. Generally bright sunlight with hotter temperatures will reduce the survival rate of the virus outdoors and slightly reduce outbreaks. However the impact is minimal when compared to human behavior. For example -- warm weather countries such as Singapore should have had minimal issues with COVID if the virus was very dependent on temperature and humidity. The wealthy in Singapore had few issues but the virus spread widely in the crowded immigrant slums (at first undetected) despite the pleasant weather. Fortunately the government took action quickly near the beginning of this global crisis to get this under control. The government of Singapore did this by altering human behavior -- mandatory masks etc. It was obvious the high temperature and sunlight would not have any meaningful impact in reducing the spread. Florida will have an advantage over more northern states this winter. It is not because the heat and sunlight will have a direct significant impact on reducing COVID-19 spread. It is because the warmer weather will reduce the number of people from crowding together indoors. Florida will have outdoor dining options in January, New Hampshire not so much. Likewise Florida's pleasant weather will allow other activities to be outdoors such as gym fitness classes which will reduce spread. Of course this is countered by Florida's state government lax public health policies which greatly increase the spread (no mask mandate, etc.). The other issue facing Florida is that it has the largest percentage of population over 65 of any other state (tied with Maine) -- this group is very vulnerable to COVID.
We posted an article about this a few months ago. A a study found a correlation between drier and cooler seasons and the spread of flu like viruses. This could be very important... thanks for posting.
this seems to be more of your unadulterated bullshit. "However the impact is minimal when compared to human behavior." Why do I think you were bullshitting? Because we have caught you lying and misrepresenting studies over and over and this time... because Covid is new and it started to tail off during the warmer weather. so you don't know if the reduction in cases can be attributed - more to govt action or human behavior or the weather. Cases fell off remarkably in Sweden and other countries which only locked down the high risk.
There are plenty of studies from warmer weather countries near the equator on COVID now in terms of transmission and infectiousness.
Correct... that does not support your bullshit. produce the data or the studies. show us how they controlled for weather and temperature. Goldman (on the heals of other studies suggested the spread of viruses may be related to cool dry air) showed the correlation with temperature and spread. Now the real science would have to begin... before the claim you bullshitted about could be substantiated.