DeSantis for the win

I'm going to head out for the day - I've got class this evening to teach. I'll leave GWB's foolishness to you to take him for the rest of the evening, Jem. I've beat him down so much today he should be nice and softened up.

 

You quoted my earlier post:

"You can easily go to the DeSantis Florida COVID dashboard and take a look at "Resident Deaths by Date of Death" chart and see that the number is already over 1500 for the past 30 days."

Let's walk through the math.... Here is the raw data for the past 30 days from Sept 28th by date of death.

8/30 78
8/31 91
9/1 92
9/2 83
9/3 81
9/4 92
9/5 83
9/6 87
9/7 75
9/8 67
-------
9/9 80
9/10 61
9/11 64
9/12 42
9/13 53
9/14 61
9/15 56
9/16 51
9/17 44
9/18 45
9/19 43
9/20 37
9/21 49
9/22 52
9/23 47
9/24 29
9/25 38
9/26 35
9/27 27
9/28 25

The total over the 30 day period is 1,738 --- easily greater than 1,500

and the allocation of all the reported deaths to the dates has not even been completed yet so the total will likely go up.

 

Obviously you don't teach statistics or math... because you don't understand that 1,738 is greater than 1,500.

Nor do you understand that when a state is reporting over 100 deaths per day on average --- when the deaths are allocated to dates several weeks later than the totals for reported deaths and the daily deaths better match or something is not correct with the math. Did some of the reported dead magically undie and come back from the death when they are not allocated to a date?

Eventually the averages for reported deaths and deaths by date will align -- if a state has been consistently reporting over 100 deaths per day then when the deaths get allocated by date weeks later then the average of deaths by date over any 20 day span is likely statistically to be over 2000. That's how math works.

 

Using your data above, deaths from days past
21-30. 829
11-20. 557
1-10. 382

That trend is DOWN.

 

The allocated deaths by date have not been completed yet. It takes weeks in Florida (as noted by their DOH website) to allocate the reported deaths to a date of death. The most recent numbers will likely be going up -- especially since Florida has been seeing more than 100 deaths reported each day in October generally. So in summary - the trend is not down.

 

So what is the total of unallocated deaths not yet on the chart? Or are the deaths already noted but later moved to the proper date.

 

Go ask Florida -- why they take so long to allocate reported death to the date of death data.

 

Then the data as shown is deemed correct until corrected. You’re assuming.

 

The state of Florida in their DOH website states the data is not final and is being updated.

 

When I go to Florida’s covid website they show 47 deaths today. So I fail to see where these extra deaths are coming from, 100+. Where do you find that?

Unless they are padding stats after the fact.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/d2726d6c01c4486181fec2d4373b01fa

Edit. when I go to Florida’s health dept website their death by date of death chart is much lower. So I see where deaths are being added but looking back dates from a week or two ago seem unchanged. 9/11. 62 same on both charts. The dates that are changing totals are close to the current date.

So it would seem that after a couple of weeks the death counts are fairly accurate.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/