deriving probability of rate hikes from Fed funds futures

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Kicking, Sep 15, 2005.

  1. I 'd rather use a website with graphs that spare me the calculation ... where can you find that info ?
    and what is the current probability of a hike on 09/20?
  2. Rick santoli (CNBC CBOT reporter) said yesterday that it was virtually %100. However he did mention that option trading activity was suggesting that major players are hedging there bets in case the fed doesn't co-operate.
  3. I am looking for charts such as the one shown by Ron Insana on CNBC this afternoon. The charts were from Bianco Research but it's available only on subscription apparently
  4. landboy


    I thought this was how you calculate chance of fed raising, Let's assuming 96.28

    (3.72-3.5)/(0.25) =


    Please correct me if i'm wrong...
  5. I just reworked the numbers and came to your conclusion. Another way to think about is that each tick is worth four percentage points of probability.