Derivatives Straddled: Global Trend Towards Low Vol in All Instruments

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Spectre2007, May 3, 2017.

  1. vol profile.png
     
    #11     May 8, 2017
  2. ninja.png
     
    #12     May 8, 2017
  3. day.png
     
    #13     May 8, 2017
  4. Zodiac4u

    Zodiac4u

    Spectre what's your flip on France? Do think this will be a fundamental driver that will add more shorts?
     
    #14     May 8, 2017
  5. no.. I think we keep grinding sideways with VWAP trades on shorter timeframes. Its Teflon market,.. VIX grinding lower. Only counter parties that have significant inventory can effect the market. Why fight CB's..SNB holdings ..BOJ holdings.. FOMC is the only catalyst really... and even that is a 'spoof' trade.. Interest rates have to head much much higher for the market to notice and offer a competitive asset class to shift money into.

    all these dynamics favor the SP 500 close to 3K.

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?...28317621&selectedindex=6&mode=overlay&first=1

    market historically doesn't seem notice till FED Funds gets close to 4-5%

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?...08048314084887567&selectedIndex=22&ajaxhist=0

    the FF rate meets the market and not the other way around, where the market comes down. FOMC can't raise rates with a significant deterioration in equities, proxies will prop up the market, till FOMC gets to their FF target.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2017
    #15     May 8, 2017
    Zodiac4u likes this.
  6. Impeachment .. a vol event.. possibly.. not sure how likely.
     
    #16     May 8, 2017