Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by stockmarketbeginner, Jan 21, 2018.
Agree with everything you said right there. I've never really claimed to be "reasonable".
I noticed on that chart, ironchief,the scale in[dollar cost] is close to , ''invest immediately bar '' in %.
And since OCT-March/APR tend to be the best 6/7 in the stock market, cant really think of a good reason to overload late Jan. PUT another way=======even a good bull market uptrend has some pullbacks no matter how slight, FEB tends not to do as well as JAN.JAN is strong, but almost never as strong as even JAN-APR
For testing, much longer would be much better.
I disagree. The policy wonk/economist/social scientist in me says, "Yay! More data! Larger n!!! Yay!" But I believe that there have been structural changes in the market which obviate the usefulness of [a lot of] data beyond ~2007. Not *all* of it, but a 'yes' in specific regards to market-wide dives followed by near-total, immediate, recoveries. And it's that V-bottom behavior that would set up a wait-to-buy-on-the-dip investor for disaster: they miss out on the rise, and by the time they hear about the dive, it's over.
Good points. Thank you. Those charts were from Schwab.
As for timing, I tried but was always wrong on when to get out and when to get back in.
Stock Traders Almanac[book by Hirsch]can help, but i never average bull markets + bear markets-they are too different.I think they were the first to nickname; OCT=bear killer. NOT a prediction.
People who bought and held Berkshire or market proxies for 30 year periods did ok.
*past performance is no guarantee...
Commissions were to expensive, in the early years, unless you were an elephant. BUT since i would rather do to MUCH work,,,,,,, than not enough,i agree. NOT sure a stock/stock market chart before the FED means much but i study them anyway.Saw a KO ad today said ''since 1886+since 1886'' NOT a stock tip or prediction.
Just curious Mr. Turtle, why do you have to put disclaimers on every statement you made? Are you a professional fund manager or financial adviser?
I have to admit, your comments were very good and accurate, definitely not from a mom and pop amateur like me.
Its because , ironchief ,some trends are not so good; but some trends are so good- so i need to remind myself also- not a prediction. LOL
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