I can guarantee that on monday gartman will be bullish as ever and will be calling for $1000 gold(heck I bet he covered today and went long), he always just follows whatever the price is doing
But if the economy tanks to the point of low demand for everything, then he will be correct: DEFLATION/DEPRESSION COMING UP NEXT. We're rockin and rollin because of past monetary and fiscal mistakes. Much more to come. Dow at 9k ? Very possible.
Amen to that. Gartman changes his mind so much his well-written daily report is nothing but scrap paper once you get it. To make money following Gartman you'd need to literally have him on speakerphone throughout the entire trading day. His YTD returns should be closing in on even after last week.
There will be massive waves of selling commodities, its not even a question of IF. Going long DEE this week. Still holding DUG and SMN. Right now oil is taking center stage, it seems now oil is the attention of everything, the higher oil goes the lower equities go, simple as that, the trend has been broken where it higher oil tagged along with higher markets.
No one believes the lows we saw in March will come again, im almost 95%+ sure they will. Just 2 weeks ago everyone was anticipating a rally back to 14k and that most of the credit crisis was behind us, well they were all wrong. I think there are plenty of more writedowns coming and probably another 2-3 banks that might go under. This is far from over, rates have to be propped up to save the dollar and curb skyrocketing inflation.
Averaging into another loser? You're long DEE since early May: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1927137#post1927137
I am still long, I was actually up 6% on that position and decided to hold on for a 10% profit, but that profit quickly went byebye on Thursday and Friday. Im buying more shares this week under $20, I just see the bubble getting bigger and bigger, it can only get so big before the massive selloff occurs like it always does. As oil and the rest of the commodities move higher from here on in, equities will begin to fall. Im least bit worried going long DEE with more shares this week knowing that sooner or later something will be done to deflate the commodity bubble. I see oil correcting greatly as demand drops dramatically due to soaring prices. If you expect oil to go to $150, $160, $175 expect massive slowdown in the economy with NEGATIVE gdp and significant drop in consumer spending. These kinds of gains in oil jumping the most in one day ever reminds me of the dot com bubble and housing bubble, we all know what happens.
I agree about the demand destruction part. The problem with shorting oil at this point though is that we have no idea where the magic 'destruction threshold' lies. Was it $90? Was it $120? Will it be at $150? I have no idea. Even if we see a worldwide recession now due to climbing energy prices that's no guarantee that prices will collapse overnight. That can take a while as entire economies are being transformed to become more energy efficient and new supply slowly comes online over the years. It could well be that $90+ crude prices are here to stay for years to come.
He covered the gold short and lunched a rant on gold bugs then pulling a buffett like hypocrisy moment went long JJG(grains ETF long index fund), of course when HE is long the etfs and index funds they are not an asset class that can disrupt the market it is only when the avg joe does it