Well, the market trades at the extreme margins and so is your example The oil producers actually have long memories from the 70s and they know that speculative high pricing causing the high spikes in the 70s eventually lead to improved energy efficiency and production - which eventually lead to the $10 oil in the 90s (and BTW also the root cause of the first Iraq war). What I suggesting was simply that there is speculative pricing in oil and that oil producers are reluctant and in no hurry to change production until the speculation is out of the market, ie., price stabilized to a non speculative level.
BTW, today gartman said he changed his mind and now thinks any CFTC change will happen in the future and doesnt think shorting gold is such a good idea anymore
Oil exploration firms are well known to discount prices that they think are out of whack with fundamentals and not make exploration budgets based on said out of whack numbers. They base their production from current wells on not only price, but their forecasts of future price and what increasing production will do to the the long term viability of their wells. They base exploration budgets on what they think price will be in the future. If they think price will drop from current levels, that is what they will factor in to their forecasts and budgets. If the prices they forecast meet their investment requirements, they will invest. They do not, as you say, "wait until speculation is out of the market" to invest. Why would they do that?
Gartman who? guy pounded the table to sell gold at 650. Hahhaha. Learn to think for yourself. Otherwise don't trade the markets.
But speculation will only come out of the market once the producers have radically increased production and brought it to market. In other words, by their very act of waiting for the pullback, the producers guarantee it never happens (not to the extent they hope, anyway - normal bull market corrections will occur from time to time). This will continue until eventually the bull market goes so high that the producers capitulate and start to explore and produce hand over fist. Only then will the bull market end.
The market is gonna rally huge soon. Now is the time 2 cover all short and puts. I'm totaly serial. The big funds and money guys are gonna ram the markets higher in the days and weeks to come. 14,000 for the dow will be retested. And stock is always right?
stock_trad3r Registered: Jun 2006 Posts: 6353 06-05-08 10:05 AM What a difference a day makes. Dow up 180 points with no end in sight. Hope you losers took profit yesterday. Thats how this market works. Lure in shorts with a few down days and then blow em' out of the water. We are still in the smartist era of web 2.0 and globalism. NO recession and no bear market. Facebook will go public and be worth 30-100 billion. GOOGLE AAPL MOS V MA BIDU RIMM EWZ FWLT CLF
It might also help to have the CFTC shut-down the "Enron-loophole" that Texas senator Phil Gramm put into legislation ( without a committee hearing ) back in December of 2000. Thank you Dubai Mercantile Exchange Thank you Intercontinental Exchange. Thank you Phil and Wendy Gramm. Last person out, please turn off the lights.