He has made up his mind about the matter, its not worth your time to continue a discussion that will lead no where. The whole discussion about TA is misdirected imo. Over the years there are only a couple things that I know to be consistent rules in the financial markets. Contraction is followed by expansion Trends will continue in motion until they don't If you take these two TRUTHS and have a TA system to define what conditions are in place than you are good IMO. TA used as forecasting tool is incorrect. TA is nothing more than a tool to define what conditions are present in the market. Like William Oneil once said...trading is a business of interpretation and not of prediction.
How can it not be prediction or forecasting? If you are buying, are you not predicting that price will go up? If you are selling, are you not predicting that price will go down? During contraction, are you not predicting pending expansion? And during a trend, are you not predicting that the trend will continue? I also hear some people say they don't predict, but they anticipate. Let's call a spade for a spade. Seems like semantics to me, but I'm interested in hearing your opinion.
I have the picture of where you are. I have turned down faculty positions at the Jung Inst (Zurich, 1967) and Dept of Psychiatrry, Michigan, 1976 ish) so I know you have to use neuroscience instead to get the cognitive soluttion that is stemming from your picture to the picture of you entering the market to make money with comfort, support and confidence. Carryover is a meaningful and thoughful context. It is mechanical. We move to mind/body and body/mind considerations. Two views from opposite sides of moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Both the Dalia Lama and Jon Cabat-Zinn have offered to come to Tucson to "help" on a solution our team has created to deal with throwing away the gift of PTSD. Mindfulness deals with thoughts and thoughs are assigned values. Convergent with this is how the body relies on surviving as long as possible. Exiting danger is deemed to be a good idea. Read the poem on page 29 ("Over the Top") in " History ans Rhymes of the Lost Battalion", 1919. Carryover came into being since trends do not end at ends of RTH days. Because CW's risk changes at ends of days there is no reason to be in markets over night. One Nota Bene: Over the existance of Western markets, they can be divided into two parts: RTH and other. RTH is net negative and other is net positive AND their sum is net positive. This kind of means the activities of the Western world need sleep while a recovery can be affected during "other than RTH". You have just read a litle about the pervasive world context. I mentioned a couple of people who are glued to solutions for getting to the high ground and in balance. They destress. My thoughts and your thoughts are different. The body seeks safteyand it keeps out of any syndrome realted to being in danger very forcefully. The body uses remote ceenters and the mind to get it's will done. Emotions of the body drive the minds of CW OODA type traders. As such no knowledge spectra have been recorded by people who use the beliefs they acquire to survive in the CW OODA mental climate. Mindfulness deals successfully with eliminating the valuation of "survival" thoughs and in turn balancing the natural emotions of anxiety, fear and anger all CW OODA type traders believe in absolutely. I do not use he CW OODA since it is irrational. Survival is not a mind/body consideration for making money when a rational system is used. Whnbe I think about tomorrow, I feel I have to know that I know. Since I do know that I know, I can start at the beginning of RTH and just keep making money segment by segment. This is a cognitive consequence and I am not in a survival modus. I have perception. Information sensed + long tem memory = PERCEPTION. 10% and 90% by weight, respectively. The day is over and I, in CW OODA terms, have bagged an unbelievable part of the market's offer. I give money away since I took too much. I do carryover as the day ends. Emotionally I am way away from anxiety, fear and anger. So I am in a state where I can set my plan for the other end of the day. Ends of days meet in the middle of trend pieces which are in an order of events. You read and see the PERCEPTION of the mobius strip of market cycles on aa trading fractal. long is the color black; short is the color red. A symmetric system prevailed. To go to building your balanced system for peak neuroscienctific performance, you put together the piices ao all the perceptions beginning with a small point of departure. By repeating emptying the value of thoughts, you then know thoughts do not hve value and you are then in balance to sense after that. Anything you sense is 10% of the picture. If you have long term memory, it has a complete system for matching what you sense. My semtence for this facet is: "I have a fully differentiated mind". I have the 90% which is required to "get it", i. e., to have PERCEPTION. The consequnce of having PERCEPTION is a human being who is cpable of realizing his potential and he is aware and in a biochemically balanced state. the two hundred or more peptides and othe fractions are servicing the gaps in the synaptic connections perfectly. Having finished sleeping the REM condition has completed is job of merging the unconscious perception and he conscious perception of the near past. I usually do a GTM that begins 30 to 15 minutes before open and others have compared my emailed annotations with their work during RTH. I know where they are going to be canning their final review of the past day: the places that are more rare in occurance. They are cognizant of the automatic maintenance of doing cognitive drills as repetition in the mind. So, you are arriving at having done the experience of entering upon open with support, comfort and confidence. you mind is bringing this PROCESS up level by level just like EMDR does for people who are wasting energy on past thoughts that not yet just become past thoughts without value. YOU KNOW YOU KNOW trend has its elements in an Order Of Events. The specrtrum of your mind's trading knowledge contains this facet as a group of informaition in seveal parts of the mind (Iknow the names of those parts, as well) My Dragon has a big biiological vocabulaqry related o neuroscience and I can footnote without looking up stuff. The open is a PROCESS in the mind of a series of perceptions all based upon the knowledge in long term memory. If there are week spots, you may not automatically "know you know", put a check mark on your log. The check mark signifies you had to "think up something. Aftr hours, do drills on that subject of thinking. Thus, in the future you will just "know you know" without thinking. We all do things "automatically". My GTM mates feel they are looking ove my shoulder. I narrate ahead of NOW, as far ahead as they need. This drill everyday inculcates.... looking-for-ness.... and moreso, how five Orders Of Events intermingle to provide a full complete mathematical model of he market operations.
did you read or see arch when he was making his predictions. the astrology part was the sizzle. The calls he was making were based on his experience reading charts.
Ok, I understand what you are saying. There is a contradiction on the surface, but like anything you dig a little deeper and you understand the purpose of the distinction. When the emphasis is on prediction i think it puts a the trader in the wrong frame of mind. Putting emphasis on prediction creates a false sense of expectation, which anybody in this business knows is dangerous. The market can do anything at any time. If instead one comes in with an emphasis on interpretation it puts one in a much more flexible position. Position is everything in a game of probability, as you want to put yourself in the position with the highest expectancy. As the market changes you change. I think the distinction isn't just semantics its more nuanced than that...because I've seen that false of sense of expectation blow many people up!
Peter Brandt has some good writing on this subject: http://peterlbrandt.com/what-does-a-chart-pattern-really-mean…/
When I recorded my chat with him back in 2005, he was pretty much leaning on astrology for his predictions-- but i don't doubt his chart reliance---- astro, charts, tea leaves--- all the same basis... http://www.marketsurfer.com/?p=60
If charts are not used for predictions and merely create a "possibility" Peter Br#ndt's words--- why not just use random entries? Random entries also create the possibility of a win or a loss, depending on luck and money management. I dont' understand the chart crutch when it comes to making trading decisions. I'll venture that 99% of all chart artists have little or no back ground in statistics or probability studies-- resulting in the wacky notions I think the chart delusion is a consequence of Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy http://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809058405 surf ps Thread is pushing 12,000 hits in 10 days and is the 13th all time largest hit producer in the history of the Psych thread in its short existence----
surf has missed out on a lot of things. I posted my screens. I also posted the sequence I use to take a lap around the panes on my screens. I do not feel price alone charts work. Price and volume charts is where a person could begin to "SEE" the markets. I have invented the name "trend drivers". Several posters in this thread have asked about what can be looked at to see how the lagging indicator, PRICE, will be behaving in the OrderOr Events of Trends. I use 10 to 12 leading indicators of PRICE. Read my last 15 posts in a variety of threads. Pay particular attention to my post on how to integrate T&S with DOM to SEE the two more behaviorally active variables than PRICE. Both can be calculated from the "functionally" expressed relation of the T&S and the DOM. From a neurocsience point of view, if you watch trend drivers and obey their signals, then you have aa great deal of cognitive processsing time, to carve PRICE turns (the variable that you trade to make money). Conscious perception is small compared to unconscious perception. REM sleep is how the mind catches up on merging the two perceptions. There is a test to measure whether a person can complete this or not in his sleep. Apparently, surf is adding new vocabulary to his "buzz list". As you see he blindly copies word groups from others. Today the market actions were very significant. It was a BEFORE and AFTER day. The bridge which is always apparent had the usual three parts and then following the asymptote tto the MLR in a critically damped manner. After that the herd mentality of dealing with knowns instead of unknowns set in, See particularly the PM breakout. All this brings us to the neuropsychology of the carry over into tomorrow. Unlike surf, I process the facts and provide the opening market direction for tomorrow as the market RTH reaches closure. We should all read surf's posts; they illuminate the operation of a mind that has no long term memory to contribute to PERCEPTION.