Not at all, I fully understand the rationale behind such human behavior. It's really much similar to show business. You raise the investment, if you're lucky and your movie grabs the cash, good, if not, investors knew there was a risk. But. It doesn't mean private trader can't be successful by watching market actions. Just two different kinds of a business.
Yes, but there is an orthogonal relationship--- just like a few gamblers make money time and time again at the casino despite a negative edge-- there are claims that a few price action traders make consistent money. It proves nothing regarding the feasibility of the technique and I only wish to use methods with real edge. Not feel good tactics like chart reading and painting pretty pictures of woulda coulda shoulda.
I've never heard of gamblers who consistently won in the roulette or other negative sum game after hundreds of bets in a row. There are consistently profitable price action/TA traders though, some of them paying serious attention to their "feel".
1, they exist, as do folks who win the lottery multiple times. 2. I can't talk about mystics, intuitives, yuri geller(s), or astrologers-- or anyone who claims special powers in the market-- although I have never witnessed such a thing as someone using magic feeling powers to interpret the optical illusion of a price chart to predict the next move or series--- I guess a few of these savants may exist in far off locales quietly making millions. who am i to doubt? surf
1. Equity curve shape can give enough information about the probability of series of the events being likely random or not. Clearly not random in the case of consistent TA traders. 2. Chart is not an illusion. Chart is just graphical presentation of actual, real trades which took place at certain prices.
I have tried to explain over and over again--- you are not getting it. You will learn the hard way, i guess. I certainly did. thanks, surf
Don't you think that your personal experience may be just your subjective experience and not reflect the objective reality?
It's not just my personal experience, if it was, i would agree with you. I know literally 100's of people in this business, folks who truly do make a living at it and some who are topped ranked in the world-- my beliefs are forged from the reality taught to me and from my experience. not from books, chatrooms or the internet as most here. I know the folks you read about. Plus I know who the charlatans are and what they proclaim-- surf PS-- simple examples why do you think TA is heavily pushed by folks who profit when you lose like FX dealers? Why is it not taught in prop shops like bright trading as a viable method? why does retail love it? and a host of other examples that make it clear its the wrong road. yet you keep on believing like some crazed fanatic who can't see the truth. ridiculous.
I think there are different niches in the financial jungle. Believe you are right about the top people in the business, it's pretty hard to move billions of dollars with TA/feel (though Soros openly admits he relies much on his "feel"). As for the small retail traders, they may make just as true living trading, but within their own niche, like NoD does in the CL. Impossible to replicate on more than a few contracts, but certainly a good living by most standards (except the standards of the world's elites of course).