Are you a mathematician or just spitting out fancy words to confuse us amateurs? I need to take more online classes to understand Bernoulli distribution.
It's just fancy words, of course No you don't. It's just a distribution where you have 1 with probability P and 0 with probability of 1-P. It's a simplistic model for most of the world around us, but it makes a lot of problems easy to think about. In this case, the OP is saying "I have a X percent win rate" and we can (stupidly) think that he's throwing a very unfair coin.
these days i am having a lot of greens compared to reds. My understanding of trades and market in general has improved a lot and it seems fairly easy to make money especially in ES these days both in an uptrend and downtrend ( intraday). A lot of traders have mentioned that most strategy or edge works for a while and then market spits out the strategy and you start at ground zero. My strategy is based mainly on support/resistance, MA and special indicator i customized myself. Also big factor is Divergence and hidden divergence that i am able to spot most times. It seems like very simple setup to me and all of a sudden i am very calm taking trades, the restlessness and nervousness seems to have gone. I am hitting 1-2 points through out the day as well as aftermarket. i don't seem to have the stomach for larger points even when everything points to a small rally. Is it good to trade about 20-40 contracts a day or should i change my target to let it ride a bit and reduce my contracts. since my indicators are simple and widely available indicators, so will the future affect me since these indicators are being used by all traders. Is everyone having such days, or is it a temporary phase that all traders experience or am i finally getting to the stage which many traders have experienced in their lives when they can finally say they are consistent profitable traders. these days risk management, position sizing etc makes sense before these were all irrelevant as i didn't have a strategy that had an edge.
Your comment was prophetic. From these losses I became aware of some glaring errors in my system, and am in a much better place now.
it is very obvious from your first statement what changed. you opened an IB account with 29k to get around those PDT rules. well now you are a bug swinging able to short and play on margin trader and they saw you coming. reduce acct size qnd go back to your old broker trading platform and worry about building more slowly ok. also the mkt changes all the time. im serious. so you say you havent changed but im sure that you have especially with the excitement of having no PDT rules. im being honest and it sucks 14 in a row. but it happens. maybe you are stopping out sooner for fear of dropping below that pdt amount? the short game is harder than anyone could ever imagine. uts easy to invest long term. go back to doing everything the same. including how you dressed your schedule your habits. stop saying you made it. otherwise you wouldnt need a chat room to explain to you anything about a bad run of losses. stop trading though for sure. like right now and figure yourself out. we cant help you with the most important step which is you. good luck
like i said. I dont care what you or your 6 year old can or cannot do. glad ur proud of him. personally I wouldnt look at grammar or sentence structure or paragraphs I would keep your eyes on what you dont know. you should stop your search now. trust me you wont find your answer here or there or anywhere because if you have to ask period then you just dont get it and you never will.