Demoralized. Is 14 losses in a row normal?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Risepoint1879, Mar 14, 2019.

  1. Is this out of 100 trades?
     
    #31     Mar 14, 2019
    bpr likes this.
  2. Visaria

    Visaria

    Gamblers fallacy.
     
    #32     Mar 14, 2019
  3. Visaria

    Visaria

    The answer to the OP question is that it depends on market conditions. If your system or method gives those results (42% win rate etc) in certain market conditions but then those conditions change, then you cannot expect the same numbers. Could be worse or better.
     
    #33     Mar 14, 2019
    billv, S-Trader and murray t turtle like this.
  4. bpr

    bpr

    No 1000 trades that is what I denote as N it is constant for the whole table ......As N increases the probability of consecutive losses increase and vice versa...
     
    #34     Mar 14, 2019
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Some trading systems are low probability but high payout. < 50% win but >> 1 Win/loss expectancy could be a good system. Best example is venture investing, with win probability usually < 10%.
     
    #35     Mar 14, 2019
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Shouldn't give up or despair if you have faith in your system. After all trading is a game of probability.

    Some traders here advocated when they had a losing streak, they reduced their trade size to prevent the unlikely case that could lead to "risk of ruin". And when the win/loss turns positive, they gradually increase bet size back to normal.

    Also, pay attention to your Kelly.
     
    #36     Mar 14, 2019
  7. Jack1960

    Jack1960

    Get back on the horse again with muh smaller size.
     
    #37     Mar 14, 2019
  8. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    I've batted 21 profits in a row, then batted a 17 losing streak right after.

    Fairly simple, the method suited the market conditions hence profit, then it stopped hence loss, sadly the market changes and then slaps you for being pig headed and not changing with it.

    Finding something, to get to the stage of just making money virtually every day has proven to be a tricky 10years :)
     
    #38     Mar 14, 2019
  9. schweiz

    schweiz

    I know, theoretically/mathematically even less then 1% winning trades can be profitable.
    But the most profitable is to have 100% winning trades with very high payouts. So I try to get as close as possible to that. I tried below 50% winning trades and it did not work for me. I prefer a system that works in all kinds of markets and gives a constant positive cashflow with no drawdowns.
    Only problem is to get close enough to that.
     
    #39     Mar 15, 2019
    AAAintheBeltway likes this.
  10. I'm still not understanding something here - what the heck is a losing trade?? Never had those before. (yeah right) :p
     
    #40     Mar 15, 2019
    AAAintheBeltway likes this.