Understandable that you're feeling demoralized.... it's because you're "trading poorly"... can't have 14 losers in a row with "proper" trades. Suggest sitting tight on your remaining capital until you figure it out. (Sorry if you're looking for some sugar-coated sympathy... but that don't feed the bulldog.)
Hard, but true. I never trade (intraday) a system that has less then 50% winning trades. As it means that I am more stupid then doing random entries.
If you have a 58% losing trade percentage, the likelihood of you having 14 losers in a row is significantly higher than having 14 winners in a row, just saying. Remember the stats, it'll help you to stay grounded. Cheers.
You've left out so much critical information. For example, is your trade method backtested and was it simulated traded ? If so, you'll already know then if losing 14 consecutive trades is the worst case scenario via your backtest results and simulated trading results prior to such occuring in your real money trading. Another example, you state you made 6k of a 5k account in the past. Oddly, you don't mention when such was achieved in in what type of market conditions. My point, most likely you're not using an automated trading system and you didn't maintain statistics beyond the general info you posted. Another example, did you maintain similar like position size when you realize you hit a losing streak and at what number of losses did you consider it a "losing streak". For example, pretend you realize its a losing streak at losing trade #5 and your stats show the worst case scenario of losing 8 consecutive trades... You should have reduce your position size dramatically no later than the 8th consecutive losing trade and as early as the 5th consecutive losing trade until the losing streak is broken. Then when the losing streak is broken...you "gradually" begin increasing your position size until you return back to normal trading. Reality, whatever you're trading...you're definitely trading within different market conditions than when you made that 6k on a 5k account and you're trading/applying your trade method differently but just have not come to grips on how you're trading differently especially if you're not automated. wrbtrader
FYI payoff ratio is irrelevant when calculating the odds of straight losing streaks, as opposed to PTTD - only winrate matters. Using an online calculator, with a 42% winrate your odds of a 14-trade losing streak in a 200-trade run are around 3.5%. (The odds of a 14R PTTD with some winners tossed in are much higher). So it's within the realm of possibility but more than likely, there's a flaw in your methodology or your execution.
I think the person was referring to having achieved their general ratio in a $5K account. Now trying to accomplish the same in a $29k account. "About 22% 2.7R winners, 20%partial winners(.5R), and 58% 1R losers. R=$460." With those figures, assuming 100 trades per month $460 * 2.7 * 22 wins = $27,324 $460 * .5 * 20 partial wins = $4,600 $460 * -1 * 58 losers = ($26,680) gross = $5,244 then subtract commissions
Right. The question is, "Am I trading smartly and have simply been unlucky", or "am I trading poorly"? Odds heavily the latter. In my mind, it's IMPOSSIBLE* to have "14 consecutive smart-trade losers". Is it possible to have "14 consecutive dumb and/or willy-nilly losers*"? Oh HELL yes! Years back I once compared losing streaks with a friend trader. My worst was 9, his worst was 14. I knew he was screwing up and told him so, but he wouldn't listen to me. In my case, I later came to realize that I had been just "grasping at straws"... desperate(?) to capture gains... and kept being wrong. It happens. Haven't had a losing streak >4 since. *Your profit expectancy should be 60-40-ish. Take .40 and compound that out 14 times. That's the odds the losing streak was simply "bad luck".
short answer yes ... Here is a table that I have built which calculates probability of n consecutive looser over N trades for given w winning percentage ... This is based on a formula I found from internet ...so not sure how accurate ... You can see for 42% win percentage row ...I would say a win is very close