Demoralized. Is 14 losses in a row normal?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Risepoint1879, Mar 14, 2019.

  1. So I've been on an upward equity curve for the past 2 months or so, over about 200 trades.

    My general ratio is this. About 22% 2.7R winners, 20%partial winners(.5R), and 58% 1R losers. R=$460.

    This should leave me with about 6k profit per month on a 29k account. I achieved this on my smaller account of 5k before.

    And I have now just lost 14 trades in a row over the past 3 days. Right after scraping together 29k for an Interactive Brokers account. Just fell below PDT cutoff.

    I did not do anything differently. Nothing worked out. I've had one winner in the last 15 trades.

    This feels horrible, and I can't imagine winning a trade again.But something tells me that a 14 trade losing streak, while very unlucky, is completely possible using my winrate percentages. Am I just experiencing a drawdown that I have to get past?

    Ps: (Only genuine advice please, I don't need cynicism or mean spirited comments right now.)

    Ps 2: (If your system take profit at 2R, don't compare our win rates)
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  2. Hint : personaly i don`t see 14 trades a day intraday, whether it`s 10 Min chart or even 5 Min chart.
     
    aquarian1 and murray t turtle like this.
  3. Is your trading systematic? I mean, how has that exact method done in the past over different market conditions? 14 in a row is pretty rough, but a string of winners could be right around the corner. You might try extremely small positions for a few trades, or take a break for awhile. Even at a casino it is almost as difficult to lose every bet, as it is to always win.
     
  4. Sorry to hear that.
     
    CSEtrader likes this.
  5. This is over 3 days.
     
  6. Get a better perspective(better setups,entries) and reduce leverage.That`s pretty much all you can do about it.
     
    Nobert likes this.
  7. Market doesnt give a shit on your (and mine for that matter) story.
     
    lindq and Snuskpelle like this.
  8. Sinbin

    Sinbin

    Backtest your strategy again. Not to point out the obvious or be tautologous, but 14 losses in a row means there are aspects that don’t work in current markets conditions or you’re not following what has worked for you previously.

    What made your strategy work before and why won’t it work now? If I experience consistent drawdowns, by that I mean S/L parameters being met, I go back to that question. The answer I usually come up with is that I didn’t follow my behavioral strategy to a T. Sometimes I forced my way into trends or false positives and was hung out to dry. My strategy didn’t permit those trades and I did them anyway.

    There is a replay function on the platform “TradingView” where you can go over previous trades. Make sure to use that in conjunction with your strategy. Don’t go live until you’ve figured it out. Stick with a demo for a bit.


    A lot of people view this as bad, while certainly not good, it’s actually ok that you went through this. Once you break this trend, you will know what happened and what went wrong. The best things you can do AT THE MOMENT- Journalize everything since you’ve been losing... I mean everything. Also, try your best to be emotionally stable. I see that you said you can’t imagine yourself winning again... you will... just figure out what’s wrong now.
     
    MACD likes this.
  9. post your setups here.many can assist.
     
  10. imjohn

    imjohn

    2 months / 200 trades. I'm assuming you average 5 trades / day, and you had a rough 2-3 day period?

    I've had streaks of 7-8 losers in a row. Also had periods where I dropped 5-6, won 1, then dropped another 5-6. My overall win rate over the last several months / several hundred trades hovers around 50%. If my win rate was 42%, then I'm certain longer rough patches would occur.

    I have several different entry signals. None of them individually have produced extensive losing streaks (more than 7). If one of my signals lost so many times in a row, I would be working hard to determine how I can refine/filter that signal to make it profitable, or drop it from my trade plan. Losing streaks can't be avoided, but extensive streaks are a red flag to me.

    The other possibility is your signals are not clearly defined and some of your entries were non valid or impulsive. Or perhaps you need a larger sample size. I don't personally think 2 months / 200 trades is statistically significant. Good luck sir.
     
    #10     Mar 14, 2019
    billv likes this.