Delinquent CMBS - the "C" stands for climbing

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ASusilovic, Jan 5, 2010.

  1. Behold, what looks to be the biggest monthly increase in delinquent CMBS in 2009 (so far).


    With the exception of June 2009, when the temporary late payment status of some General Growth Property loans helped push total delinquent CMBS to $28.85bn, it looks like November saw the biggest monthly gain over the last year — rising $5.38bn to $37.93bn.

    That’s a delinquency rate of 4.706 per cent, up from the 4.013 per cent posted in October.

    About $3.5bn of that increase was caused by a single loan — the Extended Stay Hotel LLC loan from the WBC07ESH transaction. Still, the ratings agency expects that loan to continue to be delinquent “in the near-term” and thinks the overall delinquency rate will rise to between 5 and 6 per cent in Q1 2010.

    The good news though: Realpoint thinks the various government programmes put in place to bolster the commercial real estate sector (the Talf, CRE loan workouts, etc.) might yet make an impact:

    On the other hand, as three new issue deals have closed in the past two months and more new issuance is expected to come to market in 2010, some of the delinquency growth we have experienced month-over-month in 2009 may yet be offset somewhat by any new issuance’s speed to market in 2010. In addition, liquidations of severely distressed defaulted loans have picked up speed in the latter half of 2009, while modifications and forbearance at the loan level continue to be discussed between borrowers and special servicers that may also result in a delinquency “leveling-off” period.

    So, the US banks want to make you believe"everything is ok" ? LOL !:D :) :p