Deflation-stealth in '08 shows face in '10

Discussion in 'Economics' started by deadbroke, Aug 3, 2010.

  1. excerpted from the same you don't want to know who ... :)


    10-year yields from various issuers, showing sovereign, municipal and corporate issues on the same spectrum, so that we can see, for example, how high-yield corporate bonds compare with Greek debt. We chose a parabola to depict the situation of debt issuers because debt gets exponentially harder to repay or refinance as the interest rate rises, especially for large debtors. So problems tend to intensify exponentially the higher up the curve one goes -- just as the angle of a parabola's ascent grows steeper



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    #61     Aug 19, 2010
  2. D E M A N D

    that's what they were talking about on CNBC. As yet nobody knows how to solve this .... lack of demand


    Demand, lack thereof, is a very strong component of D E F L A T I O N

    Drop trillions from helicopters - people will grab it and then SAVE it.

    All I can see is STRONG DEMAND FOR CASH!!! All cash but some are better than others :) :) :)

    USD and Yen!! yum, yum. :D

    Gold? I think top is being formed, otherwise it would be included.
     
    #62     Aug 19, 2010
  3. on what timeframe does it look like gold is topping out? it feels like it's about to break highs from the recent price action. even if does make highs though I don't see how it can stay up if/when the real deflationary selling takes hold...
     
    #63     Aug 19, 2010
  4. repeat post because its highly relevant to my argument for Deflation .....

    the thread is here .....

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=204039


    "Further thoughts on the scenario that if if if if TLT has topped, i.e. rates have bottomed ... and rates start shooting north like a rocket ...

    will it be because of Inflation .... ?

    I don't think so. I think it will be because of fears of US govt. default. As this fear increases due to suspicion and/or a shaken belief in the strength of the govt., the govt. will be forced to pay higher and higher rates to satisfy the fear of default within investor groups.

    This higher Yield will attract money from all sorts of locations and will become a sponge and suck money from other sources causing other investment categories to fail by making their debts worthless.

    As per the chart I've shown on Yields, this is what I am expecting and is outlined in the CALL earlier in this thread.

    Fasten seatbelts"
    :)
     
    #64     Aug 29, 2010

  5. Monthly timeframe. See details here ......

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=205231
     
    #65     Aug 29, 2010

  6. and now I can time it better on the Daily timeframe ... see my latest post in thread below


    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=205231
     
    #66     Sep 18, 2010
  7. I think in this case, we are working with fiat currency, as in paper dollar promises, not money, like 20 dollar gold pieces, and so this time, they are trying to debase the currency as fast as the credit bubble deflates, in order to try to maintain nominal asset values and prevent deflation in nominal value terms.

    Proof to that would be to look at the DJIA or SP500 indexes priced in gold instead of dollars.

     
    #67     Sep 18, 2010
  8. #68     Sep 22, 2010

  9. Yes.

    Have you looked at a monthly long-term chart of dow versus gold?

    Go back to the 1929 stock market top, then look at the 1966 top, then see the corresponding Dow/Gold tops.

    Then look at Dow/Gold today and see that the nominal Dow has not YYYYYYEEEEEEETTTTTTT followed. But "follow" it has always done.

    Therefore just looking at the magnitude of the sheer vertical drop of dow/gold, one can only be stunned when one tries to fathom how great the corresp[onding drop in nominal dow must be WHEN it gets underway.
     
    #69     Sep 23, 2010
  10. Oil peaked $147 and now $70.
    So yes proof there's deflation.

    Wage deflation is the worst deflation.
    Already underway for a long time.
     
    #70     Sep 23, 2010