7-20-2010 sell your stocks, defo yes, buy guns, no, they'll be worthless. so will everythng else. The formula: get rid of eveything, then get rid of everything that is bolted down. Paintings, art, stamps, coins, classic cars, houses, condos, boats, businesses, etc., GET RID OF EVERYTHING ..... except for 2 items ... US dollars and Jap Yen hard cash, (not in bonds) then in 4-10 years convert cash to gold @ under $250/ounce. There you have it.
What if you're wrong? How and when will you know it? Why long JPY? Isn't the chance of a Japan bankruptcy close to that of a UK bankruptcy? Why USD, why not a safe haven currency like CHF?
In case anybody hasn't noticed, the USD has gone down every day against just about every currency on the planet for about the last 4 weeks.
Deadbroke...why do you bother to write this thread...why don't you just email your comments to yourself and then just re-read them?
Best description of deflation I have read. What bothers me is that everybody assumes deflation is bad. But none of us has experienced it. We all seem too assume that it caused the great depression, what if it didn't. I suppose what I am trying to say is I find most of the thinking on this topic trite.
Seeing is believing. I see less lending, true. And wage increases have been crap for 2 years. But lower prices? I'm still waiting. I see some increase in obfuscated membership reward schemes. But oops, those points are far less valuable than originally promised by the time I can redeem them for anything of tangible value. All I see everywhere else is price hikes and/or downsizing in quantity/quality. On billed items (for example) the price increases are sometimes in the form of new "fees". Less money chasing same number of produced goods? I see the first part, but not the second. Yes, laying off deadwood or overpaid workers is good for companies' bottom lines, and allows them to lower prices because they are now operating more efficiently. But what if they didn't stop there? What if they additionally laid off a ton of good workers too? Then productivity is down. How fast is it declining compared to credit and money supply contractions? Since 08, I sold off a bunch coins, liquidated most stocks, and have been sitting on cash. But I'm getting really skeptical about the whole cash-is-king idea. The buying power of that money appears to be less than ever.
Seeing is believing. I see less lending, true. And wage increases have been crap for 2 years. But lower prices? I'm still waiting. I see some increase in obfuscated membership reward schemes. But oops, those points are far less valuable than originally promised by the time I can redeem them for anything of tangible value. All I see everywhere else is price hikes and/or downsizing in quantity/quality. On billed items (for example) the price increases are sometimes in the form of new "fees". Less money chasing same number of produced goods? I see the first part, but not the second. Yes, laying off deadwood or overpaid workers is good for companies' bottom lines, and allows them to lower prices because they are now operating more efficiently. But what if they didn't stop there? What if they additionally laid off a ton of good workers too? Then productivity is down. How fast is it declining compared to credit and money supply contractions? Since 08, I sold off a bunch coins, liquidated most stocks, and have been sitting on cash. But I'm getting really skeptical about the whole cash-is-king idea. The buying power of that money appears to be less than ever.
I'm not done with the THEORY foundation yet - like I said it will take a few days, perhaps a few weeks to get it all down into this thread. But I'll do some detours every now and then .... like now ... and jump into overall application w.r.t. evidence if any for Deflation ....
That's easy. Your questions are all valid, but are fundamental based. My choices and strategy is pure technical. When would I know that I'm wrong, if wrong? The DAILY charts for DX, EurUsd, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY will tell me. How so? Simple ... when the trend has reversed, even if a little late, I'll acknowledge the reversal and liquidate. Right now even with the 38% recovery in EurUsd, the dollar bull is alive, so there is no need to be jumping in and out. Remember this is not trading. This is a life (or death ) stance that can last for years as these trends go on for long periods of time. My LIFE bet is on the USD and Yen. ALLLLL my posts at ET reflect this. Nothing has changed.