"Edge" is anything that makes money in some period of time. If it doesn't in another period then it's no longer an edge.
Yeah..., insider information (illegal)..., and pockets deep enough to influence price / hold simultaneous long / short (outright or otherwise) in same instrument Neither viable for the independent trader RN
Cool..., defend away -> but I thought (interpreted your original post) to say you were moving past algo trading and over to manual trading Nevertheless All the back testing in the world WILL NEVER transfer consistently to what will / is going to happen = No edge Unless one is trying to catch the spread - never ignore context - rather trade within it To do otherwise is plain stupid..., and pissing money / emotional capital away needlessly Mkt structure / context / PA - are not discretionary - and since you stated you cannot trade mechanical (dislike the structure of algo trading) - what the hell gives you the idea you can trade manually..., skipping the all important mechanical aspect... and move directly into discretionary manual trading Every manual trader must have a core structure - both internally..., and with regard to their approach / methodology - then..., and only then - can that trader branch out into discretionary =================== As to me being an abrasive sonofabitch..., just trying to save you money and emotional capital If I were to allow it - mkt would chew me..., up then spit me out in a blink of an eye with absolutely no after thought - broke as the day I was born That's abrasive And like I said - horseshit RN
Anticipatory (Information) -> Insider Or Antifragile (Convex Payoff). -> Too Big to Fail RN is right.
Ok, I see. This all really does come down to semantics. For me there are two approaches to trading discretionary and non discretionary. Both are based in interpreting price and volume or some derivative of them. With non discretionary you are blindly following signals that you have back tested and have (supposedly/ arguable) a statistical advantage. With discretionary trading you might be watching for these same signals, structures, patterns or whatever BUT you are using discretion as to whether to trade on them or not. For example (a dumb example) lets say you have an algo system that says to buy when RSI is 30. If you are a non discretionary trader, you take the trade and follow your profit target, stop level EVERY TIME. If you are a discretionary trader you might notice that RSI is 30 but then you look around and see the market is also in the top portion of a upward trend channel and also notice price action is failing to turn bullish so you decide to disregard the signal based on context. I think you might be attributing "discretionary" to a trader to just goes on gut instincts. For me it is still very mechanical ...... just not blind. No worries on the "abrasiveness" I appreciate being challenged.
No, not these two... I am not entirely sure about the meaning of your terms. Might be what I meant. The two I was talking about are simply: a) predicting the future (not necessarily through use of inside information); and b) liquidity provision.
SMH I really want to change the title of this thread. "hey profitable discretionary traders, why do you think you will continue to be profitable"