Thanks to everybody for replying, even though not much valuable information came out unfortunately... Still looking for a way to quantify whether the day (hours) ahead will be directional or sideways. I've come up with a method to detect/quantify increasing volatility and give directional (buy/sell) signals based on that, and am using it as an extra confirmation for the signals I am getting from my current oscillators. I am willing to share info with people who have something concrete to exchange or at least discuss... Just looking for fresh/more ideas to test basically. PM me if you don't want to share info openly. Loukas
That is a ref you can use. The math is in book and all I did was make it center on neutral so it could be used either for longs or shorts.
since the book is about investing and not trading per se, will that indicator work for the very short term or is it a longer term thing?
bubba7: when asked speficially about what indicator you're referencing in the book, you quote nkhoi's post, but as nkhoi's post references both the volatilty system and the Vix indicator, which one exactly are you alluding to in your posts as the Connors-Haywad indicator: their volatility indicator (pg.23) or their Vix indicator, and btw, have any thoughts on their advance-decline indicator (pg. 93) in relevant in today's markets?
The original poster is into volatility. So I was supporting that for him. I did change the stuff to give it a neutral bias and I thought he was on that turf so I mentioned it. Their work is good stuff. Advance-decline I associate with accumulation and distribution sentiments. I have very strong emphasis on the condition of the market for myself and especially before open. I always look at three markets independantly and I assess them. They may be in concert or not or they may be mixed with respect to one another. (DJ, S&P, NAS). For years I emailed this to a focus group (large). The book is focused on several key factors that people must have under their belts for what some ET'ers call seamless traders. I fully believe that everyone can go through digesting stuff and then consciously invoking it at the proper times. If you study thoroughly the maths of the things you use as indicators, stuff like this can be seen in other indicators as coloring. I admit that I am unusual and it is just because I have inculcated in me from training formally a motto "knowledge and thoroughness". It occurs that with 40 some years of looking at stuff, you do get to "see" it. When I read a post that has substantive content, I reflect back into what the next step might be in an iterative refinement for where the person is presently. Most people are unfortunately "caught" in a framework that is tough to do an "add and delete" transition. I spent years getting a third variable for understanding the investment cycle. P and V are direct variables. The sentiment that you raise in the context of advance-decline is the third most important. To segment the cycle into parts was the problem. To have an additional variable that works in the same relation as price and volume (volume varies periodically twice as fast as the price periodicity) is a deeply involved search. I knew that I could assign numerical values to both price and volume (I chose binary to have a base that deemphasized the relative importance). Accumulation (Advance) and Distribution (Decline) connect to the direct market variables. The advent of either drives things. The maximum price velocity is reached right when the sentiment changes. This is true for either long or short trends. It is also true at peaks and troughs. So the frequency of advance decline meets the test I needed that is double the frequency of volume. C and H have been down the road. They have been where Stevie Cohen at SAC is playing now. I like to run ahead of the SAC crew so i get "pushed". One of my maths I use to lead the price, is stuff that looks like landing a plane (approaching a trough) the maths sometimes blinks on and off because the SAC types are doing blocks that spike into the landing low volumes. I made a moving filter so that the blinking is sidelined very near where price will begin to BO. The making of money is done in a micro manner. And you need to have the macro in your hip pocket to get the "herd" led by smart money to "push" trading to max out your account money velocity. The Advance-decline shift that maxes out cycle price velocity is the ultimate signal for beginning the cross over of a trade out of a maxed cycle into a cycle coming into max. The second place the A-D shift is most useful is in the "seamless" effect on my commodities trading. There I use it as a scalper "offset" to always be on the opposite side of them. scalpers "push" trades for me as well. this post is not for everyone to understand,but it does say a little about the level of the work that others have written up. It is always a good idea to digest thoroughly correct stuff that they write. It will color your efforts as a conscious raising synthesis.
you have seamlessly described why analysis skill is almost as important as the ability/guts to trade the analysis. For some, both skills are complementary, but for others, if one is hard then the other suffers. In the latter case, it seems overcomplicated or erratic analysis and trading stems from lack of adequate preparation.
I am only commenting on the title of this thread. IMHO, it is IMPOSSIBLE given our current level of understanding, to _predict_ anything about the market for more than about 6-10 minutes into the future. Maybe some more accuracy about volatility is possible... nitro
How about just waiting for a directional day to occur? Then depending on how strong the move was take up a position the following day in the direction of the trend. Bruce