Deep OTM Put Ratio Spread - Planning for market crash

Discussion in 'Options' started by GLDTLTSPY, Aug 15, 2016.

  1. Interesting. This sounds like a no-cost BSH (Black Swan Hedge) I have heard a little about. However, I don't have/know the details, but the cost and structure sounds similar. -- My recollection, is that it may be a little tricky to get the BSH fully entered (perhaps in stages, to insure the cost is near zero).
     
    #21     Aug 20, 2016
  2. vanv0029

    vanv0029

    Here is the maybe not so great idea I am trying as a wake
    up hedge for a 5-6% down move. Market is not showing
    much inclination to go down so I am trying these to see
    what happens with gamma and delta. With circuit
    breakers and probable government action plus no large
    institution portfolio insurance, bear market will probably
    not be a 1987 style crash.

    Buy ratio ES future put spreads out about 1 month
    for a 1 point credit per spread. Long 1 ES futures
    Sep. 2160 put short 2 Sep 2110 puts. Break even is 2060 Sep.
    futures.

    This is butterfly without the long 2060 put wing. Idea is when ES
    starts losing at 2110 I wake up and buy wings for about 10 ES
    points each unless IV really spikes or sell futures. I am self insuring
    until weather gets bad.

    This approach has no cost for 5% down spikes where the market then
    immediately recovers that is the current pattern. Idea is the
    losses below 2110 will wake me up and force me to act. This
    trade can hedge $2500 of losses per spread at 2110.
     
    #22     Aug 21, 2016
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Generally the cost less 1x2 doesn't earn in a selloff. What happens is you start to get short a lot of gamma and start accumulating a lot of theta But the value of the position doesn't change much.

    It is a pretty poor hedge prior to expiry.

    Don't get lulled by its siren song of low premium investment.
     
    #23     Aug 21, 2016
    ironchef and Martinghoul like this.