Decreasing interest rates, increasing unemployment and high bullish sentinment?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by daydreaming, Jul 7, 2003.

  1. I'm having a hard time when I watch CNBC, Bloomberg TV and listen to Wall Street brokers. How can they be so bullish? How come no one says that we are in a bad economic environment because interest rates are going down, unemployment rate going up and federeal and local governement deficits out of control? On top of that, the geopolitical situation didn't improve that much after all the good efforts and money spent during the past couple years. I don't expect everybody to be bearish or negative, but I would like to listen to more bipartisan interpretations of the economy.
  2. I guess we're all daydreaming....
  3. Then you should watch BBC. :D You have to tune out the chest thumpers to get the facts.
  4. Camaguey


    The current economic and market conditions do raise questions:
    Why should anyone buy in now, given the current conditions and valuations? The average P/E's of the S&P still seem to be floating well above 30 (on par w/ late 90's bubble), the economy is looking shaky at best and interest rate hikes seem to be 9 to 15 months away? In other words, why are "investors" willing to play a high risk game w/ way over priced investments?

    Currently I have no inclination to speculate w/ longer term "investments" (trading this uptrend on the dailies seems too risky despite some of the rosiest charts I've ever seen). Tech in particular seems downright absurd. (Personal favorite is the Chinese net sector: NTES, SOHU, SINA w/ PE's close to 1000. I can just imagine waking up to a 30% correction.).

    The higher it climbs, the faster it will fall I guess. Looking forward to that big short (if it ever arrives)...

  5. Monsoon


    employment is a lagging indicator
  6. i am not at all calling bottoms or anything, but the world isn't going to come to an end. it's always darkest before dawn.

    so, now that we've been in a bear market for years and things look terrible, now it's time to be bearish?!

    personally, i'm not bullish or bearish and i don't really care. the markets are going to go where they're going to go.

    p.s. who cares what those people say on tv, anyway...
  7. Unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, but the fact remains that its trend is up. It wouldn't bother me if the trend would be flat.
  8. ktm


    You people and your technicals...trend is up...don't short a strong trend up... it was in a strong uptrend in March of 2000 too.

    Nobody is saying mortgage the house and short it, just move some to the other side.

    The chest thumpers are trying to sell you stocks, or at least churn you to generate commissions for themselves. They have no basis grounded in any sort of having a tire salesman tell you whether you need new tires or not, what did you think he was going to say?
  9. Liquidity liquidity liquidity.

    Follow the $$$

    low interest rates=$$$ to corporations via bonds -> bond price inflation and low yields -> rotation out of bonds and personal savings -> equity markets=stock price inflation.

    The best time historically to buy stocks is when the economy has been bleak and the central bank turns open the spigot.

    Investors get a jump on it.

    Stocks with high PEs generally outperform the rest of the market -until they don't.
  10. They're buying on the come (the belief that full recovery is just around the corner) and momentum traders magnify the impact. If/when their belief proves wrong, they'll either just move the recovery horizon out or panic sell. Intinsic value, economics, and fundamentals have little or nothing to do with it.
    #10     Jul 7, 2003