Another item of interest that could be bullish for gold moving forward is the amount of gold held by the StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) which remains the largest gold bullion ETF in the world. Not only is the amount of tonnage held near a record high of 510 tonnes, but this week only saw 3 tonnes of liquidation by shareholders of the trust. As the markets were getting completely smoked and liquidity was running very thin, the GLD investors saw things fit to stay long gold. I find this development to be a very big positive moving forward...
Global markets appear to show some stability now. Gold appears to have established some good support at 654 which is also the 200EMA however we ideally need to close over 662 soon. Silver seems to show buying interest at 11.65-70 although it would be beneficial to see a renewed uptrend back over 12. My feeling in general is not to expect to much in either direction until after the US Labor Day Holiday. I remain long both GCZ and SIZ unless some type of significant selling emerges which isn't likely unless the USD/JPY slips back to the 112-113 area...
Not quite sure if 654 holds but 650 could also provide some good support as well. If 650 breaks then we could float right back down to 640 real quick. SIZ was stopped at B/E but still giving GCZ some room here...
For traders, there are simply much better opportunities at the moment elsewhere. Right now, margin capital can be deployed more effectively in Equity Index contracts as the SP looks set to break higher from here. Cash gold needs to break back over 694-705 in order to keep my margin tied up. Silver had a technical bear cross yesterday where the 50EMA is now trading under the 200EMA. I am choosing to stay clear on Silver until the technical situation is resolved back to its original bullish posture. Copper, Platinum and Palladium also look very sick at the moment as well.
it's true, the metals have been tentative in their long term trend for almost a year it seems. i'm thinking about trading copper. any ideas about good dates/releases to be aware of?
Gold and Silver catching some bids today on a weaker DX. I am not surprised that gold isn't up much more than $8 at the moment even though the DX is trading about 1 full point lower than where it was last week. It just goes to show us that there are suppressive forces still at work in the PMs and it is better to wait for a decisive breakout over $700 cash before moving back into the metals. So in other words, I'm still focusing my trading capital in other markets at the moment that are performing more than gold is. I think we will still see higher gold prices in the coming months but I am choosing to wait for the market to show me its hand first before diving back in...
As soon as GCZ broke over 698 today, stops got hit and prices began to shoot higher. We are very close to 700 cash right now (697). If gold can demonstrate a new trading range between 690-710 cash over the next week or so then gold should start to move materially higher in the coming months. The January 1980 high of $875 would likely be broken decisively as a result imo...
Rumor is that China and Japan shift their policy from supporting USD and increasing their gold reserves. Once US fed and treasury come out to calm these investors who got seriously burned with sub-prim mess; Gold may fall back.
Next up phase in the gold bull market has likely begun. USDX trading under 80 again presents an omen of the future. I would like to see $700 cash hold over the next few days but I am thinking we retest the May 2006 $725 Fix High before any substantial pullback occurs. COMEX local shorts are apparently having difficulties this week. Serves them right imo to be short just as the most bullish seasonal timeframe begins...