as i recall from the 1980 blowoff...the $800 price prints were away from the COMEX so there is some debate as to what the real high is.... for me, we're in record territory now and open interest yesterday increased 11,000 contracts.... so it's not all short covering....but I do have my finger on the sell icon on futs. page
The one thing that traders should remember is that the moves that we are witnessing now is not just some fly by night ordeal. This story has been unfolding since 2001 and the point of recognition is just now occurring. There is a very important speculative element involved here however the main reason for the dramatic movements in the precious metals is physical demand. Demand not only for a US dollar alternative but an alternative for all paper currencies. Yes, the XEU, GBP, CHF and CAD are all appreciating greatly against the US dollar but all of the world's central banks are printing huge amounts of money both in electronic and paper form. Inflation is occuring on a global scale and not just in the US. Gold and Silver remain the cheapest form of real money hands down imo with no central bank liabilities attached. BTW, don't forget about platinum which is truly the top dog in the world of hard bullion assets...
joe12pack really isn't in the gold market yet, like he was in '80..... coin shops around here are busy but not lines out the door kinda stuff like in 80
Platinum, alongside gold and silver is just now breaking out of a long consolidation period of roughly 15 months in length. PL is about 50x more rare than gold, is in very high demand due to its catalytic properties and it is a consumed element which like silver, is chemically active. It has also been in a supply deficit for several years now. Personally, I see much more upside to come in platinum...
Gold continues to move higher hitting about $846 in European trade. It would appear that the strength in Dollar Yen to under 113 is putting some pressure on global markets again and this has placed some pressure on silver and platinum which is too be expected. Silver ran up to $16.21 as well which was about $1.80 upside move from the previous 24hr. period. I am glad to see both gold and silver backing down a bit here as "too much, too fast" tends to lead to wicked corrections. A slower ascent higher is preferable imo. It should be expected that volatility in both directions is due to pick up from this point forward. Buying support is established for the time being at 825-830 cash gold and 14.90-15.20 on cash silver. It will be interesting to see how the week closes and several factors such as the Yen, DX and Crude will continue to play a critical role in the future direction of the metals complex.
FYI, COMEX margins increase after todays floor session closes. SI non-member spec margins are going up to $6075 now. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0813844520071108?rpc=44 Moving all contracts over to CBOT by the close as a result of this development as overnight margins are almost 50% less for both gold/silver over there...
In addition to moving over to CBOT, I am only reopening 1/2 of my gold and silver positions as we could see prices come off a bit here. The USD/JPY continues to float in the low 112 zone and ultimately wants to target 110 I believe. Most global indexes appear to be on the verge of breaking down below the September lows and the contagion/risk aversion in the metals complex could be coming soon. This will likely allow traders to renter from a lower level. Support is pegged at 14.50-14.80 on cash silver and 810-820 on cash gold. It's time to be a bit nimble until the equities market begins to toughen up. These are times when liquidity lockups affect almost all markets...