December Gold (GCZ7)

Discussion in 'Metal Futures' started by Realist, Aug 10, 2007.

  1. Realist

    Realist

    Some very interesting events appear to be taking place at the moment which I believe will take gold over and above the $730 mark before the end of 2007. Even though the USDX has established some support right at the 80 mark, the DX is now consolidating at the lower end of the range which is not a positive indication looking forward. I do expect the USDX to break under 80 and to gradually drift lower. I doubt there will be some major gap down in the DX but rather a slow and steady decline to new all time lows. We are presumed to be in the early stages of witnessing the deflation of the greatest credit bubble on the planet and no matter what the media or the gold price tells you on any particular day, the price is slowly appreciating and is more likely to breakout than breakdown at this juncture. I am long a good deal of GCZ7 right now and I have no plan to exit this position. I will likely add further upon confirmation of a breakout over basis 690...
     
  2. How long have you been trading gold / silver? Are you a professional?

    Just establishing credentials. No disrespect intended.

    Good Trading to us.
     
  3. It all depends on the long bonds.
     
  4. don't forget to watch the "carry trade"

    :)
     
  5. Don't forget to watch the stock market. Stocks and metals are liquidity-driven right now. They'll move up and down together. In a mega-deflation scenario, they'll both go down. We'll see.
     
  6. The gutsy play is to bank on the PM's decoupling from the market. Given the devaluation of fiat, it would seem commodities are the place to have your bets. Who knows?
     
  7. I agree with your $700's call and reasoning.

    I just hope I can hang in there as they try to shake me out. Bought 1500 oz today. I really don't want to be in ANY paper currency anymore any more than I need to be. I think that's where the big risk lies anymore.
     
  8. Realist

    Realist

    Gold is holding up extremely well so far considering the USDX has rebounded about 1 full point from last week's lows. Also the global equity markets still appear to be treading some very thin ice while gold has held onto 665. The major con that I see right now is the continued weakness in the gold share indexes. While this is primarily related to weakness in the equity markets, this could be a foretelling sign of weakness to come in gold metal itself. To play things a bit more safe, I have set 2 seperate stops on my GCZ7 position as the liquification by the US Fed and ECB doesn't appear to be helping the global equity markets much and therefore gold could still be sold a bit further down to 650-655...
     
  9. Realist

    Realist

    The gold shares continue to exhibit some extreme weakness compared to the current cash gold/silver price. This could be a leading indication of selling ahead in the metals. Right now the XAU/HUI seems to be pricing in a move down to 650 on gold and 12 on Silver. I've cleared out for the time being in anticipation of buying back GCZ towards the end of the month at a greater discount...
     
  10. Realist

    Realist

    Most of the junior mining shares are breaking down below their respective late-June lows when Gold bottomed at 640. GDX is also threatening to close below it's June low as well today. If this is any indication of things to come for the gold price, then perhaps gold could breakdown below 650 soon and possibly retest the 640 lows. The USDX is recovering from the low 80 mark however it is still too soon to see whether or not the DX will begin a new bull market. If we can get one full week over the 82 level then there is a strong possibility that the DX will have much further to run while gold could likely begin a very harsh downtrend imo...
     
    #10     Aug 15, 2007