I was looking through his site again, and should mention that while he mentioned those stocks with buy points the other day, he also mentioned that he wasn't necessarily getting into those trades himself. I also looked at his current model portfolio and see that he currently has no positions and is in all cash at the moment. That being the case, I'm not really sure why he would post stocks with buy points if he isn't planning on getting into them himself. The bottom line is that successful traders are better off staying with a system that works for them using their own analysis and stock picking, rather than blindly following someone else's hand-holding picks. It's the old cliche 'take a man fishing and feed him for a day, teach him to fish and feed him for a lifetime'.
Hey Zboy The best system for a trader is actually his own system. Every individual is different, what works for someone won't work for someone else. If you don't have a positive expectancy system find a few great traders to model. Learn everything about them. You'll soon have a great system also. I don't know why he is posting stocks if he doesn't trade. He's starting to remind me of Larry Williams, did really well and then just sells his services (post his picks on the web for a subscription price). rtharp
rtharp, zboy and all, I know from your posts that both of you have been around the business for awhile, so this post is more in agreement with you and for the benefit of the newer traders. There is easier money in selling the shovels than in digging for the gold yourself. Most advisory/training services are run by NON traders. Call them up and ask for recent copies of their brokerage statements. They won't give them to you because they either don't exist or they are losing money. While I agree with zboy and Robert that you should develop your OWN methods, if you must pay for training, only do so with those who will back up what they teach with real trading records. And make sure they are current records, not from a trading contest in 1987. (Nothing against Larry Williams, as I learned a lot from him, but his marketing firm has touted his performance into the ground and it happened over a DECADE ago.) Think about it, if you have a system that is consistenly pulling money out of the markets, why would you ever tell someone else about it? The only way I would do that is if I could make more selling it than trading it, and why would you want a system like that? At the risk of ticking off some people, most vendors are selling stuff you don't need. I know because I've wasted a lot of money over the years on books, seminars, etc. that have not made me a better trader. Read Gary Smith's book "How I Trade for a Living" for a more indepth look at the vendoring business. As always, BUYER BEWARE!!! I don't know anything about the guy this thread was started about and he may be completely legit. I'm glad he puts up his brokerage statements and should continue to do so if he is selling his services. There is no secret that will allow you to turn $11k into $18 million in 3 years, only discipline, luck and a severe bull market (and not in that order). Maintaining this performance will be impossible, so don't fall for the pipe dream. Be content with finding a method that is comfortable for you that generates consistent returns. If that means following the calls of some "guru" then more power to you, but you won't likely find success until you do it on your own. Kirk
Hi Wareagle My father is one of the Market Wizards, but he really doesn't sell systems. His biggest clients are hedgefunds. They have their track record published constantly. I'm not allowed to say who it is, but he is in Market Wizards also. I trade for a living and will back it up with statements. (hey I'm going to be publishing a book in another yr or 2 with my track record, then start a fund) The key for a system though is having a positive expectancy. Not Las Vegas but being the house by having the odds in your favor. If you don't know chances are they aren't. Then having the psychology intact to follow that system through drawdowns, monitoring it to see if the drawdowns get out of the norm..........(ie..this year with me and breakouts, Tom Basso had to stop trading, Paul Tudor Jones had to get some more training, Richard Dennis closed his fund..this says the market isn't behaving normally.) I survived though by finding traders who were doing well, and modeling their strategies. In fact I improved upon them as I have a better understanding of Risk with R multiples and expectancy. I tweaked my position sizing models towards their system and what I using now is incredible. Anyway......great board Baron. A lot of good feedback. rtharp
Hi RTharp, It's been interesting reading your posts. If you don't mind (maybe you do)...I was wondering if you might share some of the things that have worked for you the last few months with your personal trading. Thanks. Looking forward to reading your comments in the future.
rtharp, Glad to hear you will publish your trading records when you write your book. Not enough authors will do it. If the method really works, they should be proud of that and willingly show their record to those people giving them money. Just curious, if your method is that successful, why would you want to publish it for all to see? That will certainly reduce much of its effectiveness. Why not skip the book and go right to fund management? There is much more money in running a fund than in selling a few books. I still don't understand why a successful trader (anyone, not just you)would take time off from trading to do the enormous work required to write a book. There have obviously been a very few (real, successful traders) that have done it, but most of the books written are by people who couldn't make it trading because either the methods they teach don't work, or their trading is so marginal that the profits from the book outweigh their trading profits. Good luck to you in whatever you end up doing. Its good to see someone willing to stand up to real scrutiny of their methods if they are going to profit off the public from them. Best Wishes Kirk
Hi Kirk Actually Brian and my father have set up a goal to open a hedge fund within the next few years. They are working on me so that I'll be the head trader. By publishing what I do I feel it will only benefit everyone. Yes some systems will be less useful but others can be enhanced. High probablity setups will stay that way no matter what. If too many people start to use them they will soon fail. I agree but then when they fail most will give up on using them and the systems will work again. Markets work in cycles. As a trader it just pays to learn what is working and stay with the right cycle. rtharp
Have not had the chance to get around to trying a trial subscription yet to Dan Zanger's newsletter. So I was curious, how have his trades been doing so far?
Of the 15 picks 1 is profitable...the rest are down between $4.00-25.00....with most $10.00+loss... ....as always, GoodInvesting, Rocky
I am Lurking this guys PICKS....... ToDate: 12 up...2 down...1 (ISTI...???) From $-2.00 to + 30.00...per share Average Profit +12.00...per share In MY book.....NOT TOO BAD!!!!... Thoughts???? ....as always, GoodInvesting, Rocky