Debunk Targets

So how are you doing this simulation with SL and TP? Are you using a random walk price generator or something simpler?

 

OMG. It changes a distribution without altering its mean - variance ?! I don't understand.

 

Now, where has that been seen before, oh yes ...

 

Still some wonder about it. I've read an comment on DailySpeculation (Niederhoffer) about this because someone asked about daily targets. Here is my demonstration.

Great question. How accurate are we at predicting and do we really have to predict ? I've opened up another thread (Bull/Bear) which you answered. Which is about current conditions -> Adaptation Vs Anticipation. I'd rather adapt than predict.

So we disagree cause you say it's more efficient to trade price than conditions. What if you enter a long position, set TP @ XYZ then the market rally just below your TP then retrace ?! TP not met. What do you do ? You read the conditions ? Or TP lower because you're afraid ? Or let it run because you hope ? ...

 

imho target point (when defined) is always should be at support/resistance (that's why and how it defined), which the price approaching within the trend

if TP (at support/resistance) is not reached and trend is broken - exit (reverse in my case, since i am always in the market)

 

what conditions?

in properly chosen period a child will tell you looking at the chart if market is going up or down

 

Oki so you trade conditions (trend) and price levels (S&R) so you trade hybrid =P

 

you have to explain your definitions beforehand

 

The conditions that have a meaningful influence on your own time frame. If you plan to hold 2s or 2day call for different conditions. Yes.

 

then you call call s/r condition as well