In order to overthrow the government, you first have to get mad at the government. Smart people in government know how to deflect blame to "those evil foreigners" who are responsible for all your pain - especially when the alternative is that you're going to hate THEM. Most stupid idiots would believe that it's all someone else's fault... hell, half of them can't even find their own damn country on a map, how are they going to know who to blame for anything? It won't be very hard to get all the blind morons riled up against some external foe if they have to.
It took Rome a couple hundred years longer than the US has been in existence.. I think that news of the demise of the US is a little premature... But we do need somebody on the other side of our long positions now don't we? It takes buyers and sellers to make a trend, a trend is a cycle of Accumulation and Distribution.. there are posters on ET that have stated that they have been short all this year... and one is the worst doom and gloomer of all... somebody has made 50% on his bet...
The funny thing too is that when Rome collapsed, it took like another 1000 years for any "empire" to even come close to matching Rome. These doom and gloomers are hilarious. They basically are wishing for the US to "collapse" thinking that some other country is going to "fill the void". Yeah...good luck with that. Just like how the Roman Empire made most of the world live at a higher living standard, and with its collapse, it took down the whole world civlization and most of the progress made with it as well.
Hi Mvic... Pabst... says your pretty sharp... so being neutral could you argue these two PDF's as incorrect... as written http://www.enflow.com/Beyond_The_Stimulus.pdf http://www.enflow.com/The_Solution_Is_The_Problem.pdf and also argue that Karl Denninger's math of DEBT to GDP articles as incorrect too... http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1453-Find-The-Difference-Why-Ponzi-Finance-Fails.html thanks for your time...
I agree with the 1st two articles (with the exception of the $23 trillion nonsense) and am in the double dip camp myself. As to when that next dip will be reflected by the market is something that I am far less clear about, but sometime between now and the end of 2010, barring additional stimulus, seems likely. I have seen Denniger's videos and think that he is excessively pessimistic. There is so much waste in the system that we could probably get away with a Federal budget 2/3 of what our current one is and not take too much of a hit as a nation. What I see in our future is much higher taxes, interest rates, and monetary controls (ie amount of dollars that are allowed to be expatriated, this is already happening, people who want to leave the US are still liable to the US for taxes for 10 years after they have left!) If we are lucky we get away with a lost decade like Japan experienced, if not we will suffer a fully fledged depression but not for a few years yet, the can can be kicked further down the road than most of us can imagine. The solution as I see it is for the government and the Fed to stop propping things up, it is ultimately a very expensive and losing battle. Let asset prices fall to equilibrium levels where economic activity can take place. Lets take our pain in the next two years and clear the slate so that the economy can then grow again in real terms. A few decades ago I recall when Italy was going through some very difficult economic times, the Italian government just dipped in to every bank account in the country with a one time fee or tax (the Fed wants to do something similar though not as confiscatory by tapping in to the money markets, borrowing funds from them against the toxic assets their books are laden with) . Government's do what they need to when their backs are to the wall (and this is what I think Denniger does not factor in to his conclusion), after all what is the alternative? Libertad has posted about the potential for a VAT in this country and that too seems like a possibility though I doubt it will replace any other tax, rather will be in addition to. Obama and the Dem's also seem set on reducing military spending. Nothing original about any of the above, most of it is almost conventional wisdom at this point as even many of the bulls acknowledge that the fundamentals underpinning this bear market rally are precarious to non existent.
War first, yes. Marc Faber says so and it will happen. The US is debasing the dollar and will continue to, then inflation will come, then war....whatever aftermath there is left, will be the 1000 years of peace per se. WW III is actually already here and will be expanded. Most wars are started b/c of money and/or religion. Get your popcorn out and your shotgun by your side, cuz this one will be historic, and the war could be a civil/revolution war w/n our borders....not with towel heads or communist nations. After the collapse of our Gov, we will write a new Constitution that will demand gold reserves and also take away the "rock star" status these idiot congress/senate peeps have with all the pork and lobbyist. Hell, they sell insider info to hedge funds and it is legal. Take away the glamor and ability to borrow and spend all our money away, the one's that will run for office will be like our founding father's who actually cared. And, if you need a time frame for the collapse...watch our interest on our debt. This year we will pay $400 Billion per year, in 3 years it will be $1T per year.....once we get over the $1T per year in INTEREST alone, it is time for all hell to break lose. Our debt will be 200%+ GDP etc..... Why do u think you can't buy ammo the last 10 months? It really is hard to find. Not the .22 crap, good ammo for good guns. It's coming.
Thank you very much for taking a look at these... I felt i might be getting only one side of the story... and for helping me consider some opposite points... edge...
All these countries collapsed, so what. 5 Years after the collapse it was business as usual Anyone who thinks the American people are going to take the streets are smoking something. As long as people get up and go to work. So what they wont care if they get paid, in dollars, euros, bananas. The Great Depression was a collapse, with starvations, soup lines, gold confescation, and there wasn't a single shot fired by Americans. Maybe America slows down, Maybe it doesn't. Japan cratered 20 years ago no world war. We are in the age of stability believe it or not. Look at how hard Islamists have been trying to trigger a world war for the past 20 years. Nothing, maybe it will take a nuke, I doubt Anyone think a world war will be triggered if Israel takes a nuke. No fucking way. Not right, people will cry, nations will shrug. and thats it. For the majority of people life is pretty damn, good even being a mindless slave. Its just like 911, the 30 second pop culture. Why the fuck are we in Afghanistan again? The illusion of freedom is good enough for 80% of the world. China is the future model. The perfection of the freedom illusion. Let people consume what they want, but just don't let them think what they want. So sit back and enjoy your soylent green. I think Brazil will be on the tube tonight.
I'm not sure they want to do that at all. They will just reverse repo their own treasuries and agency MBS with the MMFs. I doubt they will use their 'high' quality MBS and even if they do, as far as I know the counterparties are still entitled for the full payment in the case the collateral turns sour. If they use UST and agency MBS then its risk free and the money funds get to make some kind of money off their idle cash without having to take private risk Chances are they just want to draw cash from the system