space holidays. lol. my favorite was how much the whole 'new economy' was pegged to video games. and, broadway show producers viewing the set remotely.
What are you talking about? There will be another boom and bust cycle down the road in who knows what. Nanotechnology or cryogenics or tourist space travel or third world construction companies, who knows. If lotteries are a voluntary tax on the stupid, then boom and bust cycles are a voluntary venture capital tax on the gullible. The market had to throw billions of dollars at hundreds of worthless companies in order to fund the handful with actual value that will survive and thrive. The same thing happened with railroads and autos way back when. Price and value do not have an intrinsic connection. Just because something is valuable or useful does not mean it has to be expensive, that's what competition is for. The bursting of the bubble is about natural cycles of greed and fear, it really has very little to do with inventions or discoveries or ideas. Perhaps a key measure of how useful something is is how much it's taken for granted. Nobody talks about the magic of telephones anymore. All that hoopla over internet companies and computers showed that their prices were ballooned by hype. As their value increases, they will become invisible, just another background part of life. p.s. Mike 777 I came up w/ some of the same new bubble ideas before noticing your post, so maybe that means we are onto something
I fully agree with you darkhorse. Bust cycles do last longer than people think though (remember it was supposed to be over 18 months ago). Basically it has to last a good fraction of the time it took to build the boom (think 30% or 50% of time). And that is, IF a next boom does start (the larger trend continuing in other words). by the way, I liked your quote about 'survivorship bias". however, in this thread you can read what I meant by 'most traders have a bias'. tntneo
thx tntneo u r right on the money with the bias thing. i'm starting to see shades of gray in so many places i have to resist the temptation to put qualifiers on half the stuff i say things are always becoming more clear and less clear at the same time, new understanding brings new distinctions brings new questions sometimes it makes my head hurt. i'm glad it's the weekend
Looking at the Naz as a business rather than an index, the guys running Nasdaq must be sweating bullets. They have big global expansion plans and want to expand and do great things. Kinda of going to be hard if the whole market turns into a big group of penny stocks. I believe they must be working ways to try and support the market index by opening their arms to any IPO. Guarnateed if a new technology catches on it will be hyped like we have never seen before. Out will go the all the software and telco crud to make way for the new new paradigm. Their survival depends on it. Imagine if Softy left and went to the NYSE. Good ole M. Or another thought I had was how long till they come out with the 'Naz 20'. A cute little index that can be run up easily.:eek:
Weird, we must be thinking along the same lines. They must look at the Dow with envy, it so easy (relativley) to hold that thing up. Even the 100 is only really 10 or so stocks. The rest are garbage.
Oh, there are definitely absolutes. Objective truth exists a priori. We simply aren't as smart as we think we are.
******************************************* Yeah but since I'm sure there are no absolutes I can't be absolutely sure that there aren't! Anyhow I was sure the anole had a dewflap when in fact it has a dewLAP. But I bet the anole doesn't even know what is right under his nose. ************************************************ "Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of if whatsoever." - Baron Munchausen