Attatching a plain vanilla 5 minute chart with the key prices I had established the day before. Actually, 116 02 was established as a key number, on 03 June, and 115 28 was established as a key number on 23 March, and finally, 116 10 was established as a key number on 07 July. Note that the key numbers are simply a side issue, i.e. my way of getting S/R. Just a simpe explanation of the lines on the chart. Also, the little red arrows are simply to indicate the times in question. I can't find a way to create a different pointer with Ensign, other than a down red arrow.
Moqul, and ADX_trader: My thoughts exactly. I see an easy 7 ticks for the first short at 116 07, and an easy 6 ticks for the first long at 116 03. My post is not about the key numbers, and I haven't done a concrete statistical analysis of them, but based on 6 month periods (times 5) of chart analysis for each of the 5 times I've opened an account, the numbers hold up very well. The key (pardon the pun) is knowing what to do and committing when price arrives at a number.
EdgeHunter, <B>...Short and Sweet - Entries Not As Important as Exits... Entry can be based on random flip of a coin and account can still go up... Exits & position sizing are (stops or profit taking & money management) are 'Gods'...</B> Above is taped to my forehead. nzbryant, <b>...Your focus should be on exits, not because they are more important, but because it seems you have been focused on entries and haven't gotten anywhere. So try something different - it may work for you psychologically...</b> Second person to mention being focused on exits. Excellent post!
duard, Excellent suggestion re: bracket trade. Would you kindly pick a point on the chart and provide an example of how you would have bracket traded that particular point? Thanks in advance.
coolweb, Spot on! I like the way you think. The way you speak of consolidation will be my rallying cry to pull the trigger next time it happens. Consolidation appears when consolidation appears! NihabaAshi, Embarrassing to read, but all true. <b>remove all that subjectivity you currently have in your trading of ZB</b>. Will do! Taped to my forehead!
sulong, <B>The short answer is that most P/V traders have a specific criteria of success/ failure of a test of S/R. A trade is entered or exited only after the specific criteria has been met.</B> Thanks for your post! Dantheman, A quote from one of my favorite movies of all time! Excellent wake up call. Thanks. nitro, Looking at the book now. Thank you for your input. murray t turtle, <B>Like occasional derivatives myself also and ; hopefully you have been keeping records so should be able, to find plenty of patterns that do not work for you ???????.</B> I'm sorry to say that I've written down what appears to work (after the fact, when I look at my mistakes), but I've never written down which patterns do not work. I'll need to reflect on this further.
<b><u>Nitro...</b></u> Thanks for agreeing with the essence of my original post... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=52395&perpage=6&pagenumber=2 <b><u>CoolWeb...</b></u> Yes, it seems intuitively right but its statistically wrong that entires are as important <b><u>AS</b></u> exits... Van Tharps book costs less than 2 ticks in the ES mini and covers this in depth... cj __________________ HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE If You Have The Vision We Have The Code