Dealing with Trend days vs Range days: Psychology and Pulling the Trigger

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by johnpinochet, Jul 16, 2005.

  1. duard

    duard

    Why not put a standing order away from the market (or a standing bracketed order) where you "believe" the market will trade through on the way to your "target," thereby alleviating your trader anxiety with regards to pulling the trigger. Then you just manage your stops. The market will pull the trigger for you. You'd be surprised how well this can work to see the market trade through your order and instantly make your trade profitable. The key as mentioned is then your exit.

    Just a thought...
     
    #11     Jul 16, 2005
  2. Hello,

    Here's some info on how I would have done it


    07:36 I would have done nothing, I have no confirmation on which direction the market will be moving.

    08:05 would be where I would execute my movement mainly because downtrend has been confirmed, you are under 50 ma ,

    Consolidation appears, when consolidation appears, that is the place to be placing your bet, while it may jump back to 116 10, it doesn't matter becacuse its consolidating chopping around at 116 08 , no use of predetermined points if its chopping around 116 08, so I would set my order in at 116 08 or 116 07 , stop 116 09, a notch above the highest point in consolidation.

    That would be where I would place my "bet"
    emphasis on the bet.
     
    #12     Jul 16, 2005
  3. edgehunter,
    although I agree with you exits are important,

    I disagree that they are not as important as ENTRIES

    Without effective entries, your EXISTS will not fall in place correctly.

    I think order of importance are

    1. Entries & Stops
    2. Exits (Profit taking)

    Where entries and stops are of equal and high importance.
     
    #13     Jul 16, 2005
  4. Hi johnpinochet,

    Based on what you posted...

    Your obviously trading without a defined method that contains specific criteria for entering a trade.

    I also notice other things (lines) on your price chart and stuff at the bottom of your chart.

    You didn't say anything about that.

    Why not ???

    Are they clouding the picture for you...causing you to second guess whatever it is your doing ???

    If they have no impact on your trade decisions...why have them on your chart.

    However, if they do provide info...design specific criteria for their use which takes me into my below comments.

    My point...if your going to use s/r levels...

    You must develop a strategy that contains specific criteria that needs to occur when price hits your s/r numbers.

    If those specific criteria are not verified when ZB reaches your key numbers.

    No trade.

    If those specific criteria are verified when ZB reaches your key numbers.

    Enter a trade.

    Simply, that will remove all that subjectivity you currently have in your trading of ZB.

    I'll repeat it...

    You do not have a well-defined strategy for trading ZB.

    If you did...you wouldn't be asking the above questions in your quotes.

    This may explain why you've blown out so many accounts.

    Geesh...the way you explain how you use s/r levels is a little scary (your trading on emotions or feelings and not via specific rules).

    NihabaAshi
     
    #14     Jul 16, 2005
  5. You are being overly analytical because of fear. You are analysing to cover up the fear.

    The only way THROUGH (not around) is to tie your balls to a trade with a pre-set target and feel the fear in your stomach and body (with a dollar risk to your stop that is a small percent of your account (like 0.5-1.0%)).

    Your focus should be on exits, not because they are more important, but because it seems you have been focused on entries and haven't gotten anywhere. So try something different - it may work for you psychologically.

    Rod
     
    #15     Jul 17, 2005
  6. nitro

    nitro

    I doubt a single person that has replied to this thread makes a living trading the interest rate futures, and most of the answers you are going to get are of the "I have no idea what I am doing but read the Mark Douglass book" veriety, or, "put up a bunch of lines on your screen based charting program" and based on those lines try to make money.

    "Insanity is the mental state of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." If in those six times trading the interest rate complex, it sounds as if you have not dramatically changed your approach, there is something wrong there. The markets have consistently told you that your approach is wrong. Think about that...

    I am indirectly aware of one of the biggest bond/note traders in the world, and all the size traders on the planet know this guy. All I can tell you is that AFAIK, most of these guys make a large percentage of their money not by playing the bonds directionally, but by putting on huge size and playing the entire yield curve against each other as spreads. And not just US, but US against other international bonds, i.e., US ten against the German Bund etc. Learning to do trade in this style correctly is an art, but if you don't even understand how the techniques involved in doing that, imo you are probably toast.

    Read this book cover to cover and understand it like the back of your hand. It is a good place to start:

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...102-8584047-5039303?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

    The CBOT also has courses that you can take from professional traders that are probably really helpful.

    Finally, I will tell you that bond traders are probably the smartest and best capitilized traders in the world, and well, good luck.

    nitro
     
    #16     Jul 17, 2005
  7. That looks like an interesting book. They have a hardcover edition $20 cheaper but it is listed as third edition whiile the softcover version is called revised edition. Which one did you read? I wonder if theres any major difference between the two?I dont really intend to trade them but I would like to understand the interrelationship better.
     
    #17     Jul 17, 2005
  8. nitro

    nitro

    I have the hard cover revised edition.

    Back to my mini-vacation :D

    nitro
     
    #18     Jul 17, 2005
  9. why in the world would you be trading (i'm assuming the contract is the ZB/31.25/tick?) when you've consistently lost so much?

    (i'm not trying to sound like a jerk but you need this)

    HELLOOOO MCFLY!!!

    TRADE SOMETHING THAT IS MORE FORGIVING

    like the ym/$5/tick...sheesh.


    start with something easy where there isn't as much pressure.

    it reminds me of the people who try trading larger size when they haven't even confirmed to themselves that they can handle 1 ct. IF YOU CAN"T TRADE 1 CT profitably or even BE....how in the world do you expect to do so on 3 or 5 cts???

    common sense dictates that you should do something DIFFERENT this time around, perhaps a LOT of things different.
    but please, above all else, move out of the bonds.
     
    #19     Jul 17, 2005
  10. From the chart, you should able to make a fortune! Enter at 116-02 exist at 116-10! Wow!

    But why not?
     
    #20     Jul 17, 2005