Deal or No Deal? - The game

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Pekelo, Jan 30, 2007.

  1. Pekelo


    Let's say I want to make this a casino game, and I am the casinoowner. What would be the entry fee for 1 game?
    Is it around 131K, because that is the expected outcome of the game?
    #21     Feb 1, 2007
  2. 4re


    My son got the game for Christmas this year and I was playing around with it. So far it appears to be totally random so here is the strategy I used.

    1. Pick whatever case you want for yourself
    2. for the first 6 cases pick 1-6
    3. then for the 5 cases pick 7-11
    4. Just keep going in order like that until you feel like the probability of losing gets out of hand

    My best game was 729,000 all I had left were the 1 mil and 750K
    I have had 2 games in the 500K range also. But I lose my ass several times as well. I have not figured out an average as I just stumbled on this thread but try it and see how you do with it. If nothing else the games are fast this way.
    #22     Feb 1, 2007
  3. Pekelo


    Is that game computerized or on paper?

    By the way, since it is random, there is no advantage in picking the boxes according to any kind of strategy.

    The strategy we refer here is when to stop/by what logic to advance. I had the million in my box in the first 10 set of games, it is no big deal, you are supposed to get it 4 times out of 100...

    The problem is that in real life you have only one chance (1 game to play), thus you are supposed to play according to your best strategy, so you can get the possible biggest win....
    #23     Feb 1, 2007
  4. 4re


    Yes, I was using a little hand held game. And I do pick my case at random it doesn't really matter.

    Now as far as having one chance to get it my first game was my best game
    #24     Feb 1, 2007
  5. $750k on first try. Not bad huh? :D

    I just kept telling myself the worst case scenario is I get nothing and I pushed my luck all the way. :D
    #25     Feb 1, 2007
  6. This game is all about why people "blow-out".

    Let's say you're a trader just starting and without a real edge. Most people in this situation overbet their bankrolls. Two things can happen soon after you start, and I would dare to say often happen - you can blow out right away, or you can way exceed your expected profits by chance.

    That's where the game comes in. If you didn't blow out right away, you now have a relatively big bankroll to where you started.

    All logic suggests that assuming you don't change your strategy, you should get out - i.e. take the deal. The problem is that if you do take the deal, you give up on seeing your bankroll multiply the same number of times - i.e. you see the 1M on the board.

    Most people do what the game players do - they go for the 1M and end up losing most of it if not all of it since they never really had an edge.
    #26     Feb 1, 2007
  7. Pekelo


    Hey guys, play the game like this, so you can actually lose something or at least it is more real:

    Every game should have a fee, I say 130K. So you have to subtract that amount from your overall winnings.

    Now let's see, in the long run, can you stay positive???

    P.S.: A strategy was already revealed here how to reach just about this much, but try to beat it with your own strategy...
    #27     Feb 1, 2007