Deal or No Deal, Pricing model

Discussion in 'Options' started by KINGOFSHORTS, Feb 4, 2010.

  1. Anyone watch it. Definitely can see the Gamma risk in effect and delta :) as they turn down the bigger deals as they get closer to a high probability of winning the higher number prizes due to less amount suitcases left but one high value one is left. And watching the horror as the next deal offering collapse in value quickly when the one good suitcase gets taken leaving 3 sucky ones.

    Everytime this show appears on tv I end up glued to the TV set :)

    One player turned down 135K only to have to settle for the 25K deal (Turning down other deals, 33K,40K,75K,63K,135K then poof 25K)


    Little quote from this entertaining article.

    "I haven’t mentioned it prior to now, but after that little slap in the face, the banker came back with a gaudy offer of $21,000, which was 63.1% greater than the new mean of $12,875. Looking back at this, I almost wonder if the banker had simply resorted to toying with this poor woman based on her previous decisions. Either way, the lady quickly wised up and accepted the overly generous $21,000, which represented a $110,477.54 loss against the starting mean of the game."
  2. Pekelo


    I have noticed that the Banker is lowballing the contestants. With a close approximation the Offer is usually this:

    Sum $/ number of cases/2

    Once the Deal is accepted the divided by 2 part disappears, thus the offer is at the endgame always at least twice as much as the contestant was still in the game.

    Maybe they could be sued over this. The general purpose I guess is to force the contestants to take more and more risk until they blow out....
  3. Gamma risk LOL.... ITs a simple fair value statistical question, the catch is none of the players can do fair value betting in their heads and non of the "deals" which get offered are fair value.
  4. If there are only two cases remaining, the final "deal" is the value of the lesser case, not the average of the two cases. :cool:
  5. Otherwise the show would have gone off the air a long time ago. :cool:

  6. No one said it was the average and I would guess that if its down to the last case they wont offer you fair value even in a 50/50 scenario.
  7. Actually there are deals that get offered that are above fair value. I think they do it to fuck with the contestants. Like that dumb ass who turned down the 135K offer when it was pretty much a real good deal. You can see it in thier faces when the blow out and come to the realization they are screwed.
  8. I have never ever seen a deal that was fair value or better, there is NO reason for them to give away edge and they simply dont do it.
  9. Pekelo


    Fair value is relative. Without knowing how many cases were left with what amounts, the 135K could have been a very shitty offer. With the newer version of the game (Max. is 500K) they almost never get a fair value offer...

    Also it is important if the previous offer was much lower or was it already 200K?

  10. Fair value is not "relative" you can calculate the fair value since you always know how many cases are left and what values are left in those cases.
    #10     Feb 5, 2010