Deadly airborne plague in Madagascar is now at 'crisis' point and the 'worst outbreak in 50 years' as cases rocket by almost 40% in just 5 DAYS and could hit a further 20,000 in weeks The World Health Organization now states there are 1,801 suspected cases This is significantly higher than the 1,309 the agency reported last Thursday Professor Robin May, an infectious diseases expert at Birmingham University, told MailOnline that the outbreak is 'concerning definitely' Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the epidemic could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue The 'unprecedented' outbreak has prompted warnings in 9 nearby countries By STEPHEN MATTHEWS FOR MAILONLINE PUBLISHED: 12:38 EDT, 2 November 2017 | UPDATED: 14:40 EDT, 2 November 2017 The deadly airborne plague spreading rapidly across Madagascar is now at 'crisis' point as cases have rocketed by 37 per cent in just five days, official figures reveal. The outbreak, the 'worst in 50 years', is being fueled by a strain more lethal than the one which usually strikes the country off the coast of Africa. The World Health Organization (WHO) now states there are 1,801 suspected cases - significantly higher than the 1,309 it reported last Thursday. Academics have revealed such a jump in cases over the period of five days is concerning and have predicted it could get worse. The most recent statistics show there have been 127 deaths. Professor Robin May, an infectious diseases expert at Birmingham University, told MailOnline that 'whichever way you look' at the outbreak, it’s 'concerning definitely'. Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the epidemic could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue. It could be made worse by crowds gathering for an annual celebration to honour the dead earlier this week. The 'truly unprecedented' outbreak has prompted warnings in nine nearby countries - South Africa, Seychelles, La Reunion, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros and Mauritius. Two thirds of this year's cases have been caused by the airborne pneumonic plague and means it is spread through coughing, sneezing or spitting. It is different to the traditional bubonic form that strikes the country each year. Speaking exclusively to MailOnline, Professor Johnjoe McFadden, an expert in molecular genetics at the University of Surrey, said: 'It’s a crisis at the moment and we don’t know how bad it’s going to get.' Professor Jimmy Whitworth, an international public health scientist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told MailOnline earlier today: 'This outbreak though is the worst for 50 years or more.' +22 Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the plague epidemic in Madagascar could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue +22 More than 1,300 cases have now been reported in Madagascar, health chiefs have revealed, as nearby nations have been placed on high alert +22 Figures show that at least 1,300 cases of the plague have been reported so far in this year's outbreak, with 93 official deaths recorded. However, UN estimates state the toll could be in excess of 120 +22 Officials in Madagascar have warned residents not to exhume bodies of dead loved ones and dance with them because the bizarre ritual can cause outbreaks of plague Plague season hits Madagascar each year and still has six months to run, however, this year’s outbreak has seen triple the amount of cases that was expected. This year's outbreak has started earlier as forest fires have driven rats into rural communities, which has then spread into cities for the first time, local reports state. It comes amid warnings annual celebrations to honour the dead saw large crowds gather in cities, increasing the risk of infection. HOW QUICKLY WILL IT SPREAD? DATE OF REPORT 26TH OCT 31ST OCT 5TH NOV 10TH NOV 15TH NOV 20TH NOV 25TH NOV 30TH NOV 5TH DEC 10TH DEC CASES 1,309 1,801 2,478 3,409 4,690 6,453 8,879 12,217 16,809 23,128 These figures in italics are MailOnline’s analysis of what would happen if the current 37 per cent increase continued in five-day gaps. Actual figures in upcoming reports issued by the WHO completely depend on intervention by international aid agencies, and could paint a much different picture. The Sun: If they are travelling shorter distances and they're still in the incubation period, and they have the pneumonic (form) then they could spread it to other places. 'We don't want to have a situation where the disease spreads so fast it sort of gets out of control.' 'At this time we cannot say with certainty that the epidemic has subsided. We are about three months into the epidemic season, which goes on until April 2018. 'Even if the recent declining trend is confirmed, we cannot rule out the possibility of further spikes in transmission between now and April 2018.' However, this year's worrying outbreak has seen it reach the Indian Ocean island’s two biggest cities, Antananarivo and Toamasina. Experts warn the disease spreads quicker in heavily populated areas. It is estimated that around 1.6 million people live in either city. The first death this year occurred on August 28 when a passenger died in a public taxi en route to a town on the east coast. Two others who came into contact with the passenger also died. This year's outbreak is expected to dwarf previous ones as it has struck early, and British aid workers believe it will continue on its rampage. Olivier Le Guillou, of Action Against Hunger, previously said: 'The epidemic is ahead of us, we have not yet reached the peak.' +22 As part of the tradition, festivalgoers leave the bodies of their ancestors on a straw carpet +22 Isabel Malala Razafindrakoto carries the wrapped body of her son, who died aged just three years old HOW DID THIS YEAR'S OUTBREAK BEGIN? Health officials are unsure how this year's outbreak began. However, some believe it could be caused by the bubonic plague, which is endemic in the remote highlands of Madagascar. If left untreated, it can lead to the pneumonic form, which is responsible for two thirds of the cases recorded so far in this year's outbreak. Rats carry the Yersinia pestis bacteria that causes the plague, which is then passed onto their fleas. Forest fires drive rats towards rural communities, which means residents are at risk of being bitten and infected. Local media reports suggest there has been an increase in the number of blazes in the woodlands. Without antibiotics, the bubonic strain can spread to the lungs - where it becomes the more virulent pneumonic form. Pneumonic, which can kill within 24 hours, can then be passed on through coughing, sneezing or spitting. However, it can also be treated with antibiotics if caught in time. Madagascar sees regular outbreaks of plague, which tend to start in September, with around 600 cases being reported each year on the island. However, this year's outbreak has seen it reach the Indian Ocean island's two biggest cities, Antananarivo and Toamasina. Experts warn the disease spreads quicker in heavily populated areas. +22 The ceremony sees the wrapped remains carried out into the open and carefully placed on a mat where they are rewrapped, or 'turned' in the new shrouds +22 Two women sit on the ground and hold the body of one of their ancestors as they take part in a funerary tradition WHAT IS THE FAMADIHANA RITUAL? The unique custom, originating among communities that live in Madagascar's high plateaux, draws crowds every winter to honour the dead and to honour their mortal wishes. 'It's one of Madagascar's most widespread rituals,' historian Mahery Andrianahag told AFP at a festival in Ambohijafy, a village outside the capital Antananarivo. Relatives invite all their fellow villagers to attend the ceremony and to take part in the procession as well as musical and food festivities, but the wrapping of the body is a purely family affair. The dead may be 'turned' more than once but only every five, seven or nine years, and can be wrapped in several shrouds if different parts of the family or loved ones want to honour them. The customary ritual, rather than a religious rite, can be shocking for some, but for those taking part, it is an intense celebration accompanied by music, dancing and singing, fuelled by alcoholic drinks. As soon as the ritual is over, the mats on which the bodies are laid were pulled up. Many participants store them under their mattresses in the belief it will bring them good luck, harboring bacteria. A WHO official added: 'The risk of the disease spreading is high at national level… because it is present in several towns and this is just the start of the outbreak.' International agencies have so far sent more than one million doses of antibiotics to Madagascar. Nearly 20,000 respiratory masks have also been donated. However, the WHO advises against travel or trade restrictions. It has previously asked for $5.5 million (£4.2m) to support the plague response. Despite its guidance, Air Seychelles, one of Madagascar's biggest airlines, stopped flying temporarily earlier in the month to try and curb the spread. Schools and universities have been shut in a desperate attempt to contain the respiratory disease, with children known to come into contact with each other more than adults, and the buildings have been sprayed to eradicate any fleas that may carry the plague. Experts have long observed that plague season coincides with the period when Famadihana ceremonies are held from July to October. Willy Randriamarotia, the Madagascan health ministry's chief of staff, said: 'If a person dies of pneumonic plague and is then interred in a tomb that is subsequently opened for a Famadihana, the bacteria can still be transmitted and contaminate whoever handles the body.' +22 Schools and universities have been shut in a desperate attempt to contain the respiratory disease, with children known to come into contact with each other more than adults, and the buildings have been sprayed to eradicate any fleas that may carry the plague +22 International agencies have so far sent more than one million doses of antibiotics to Madagascar. Nearly 20,000 respiratory masks have also been donated BUBONIC PLAGUE: WIPED OUT A THIRD OF EUROPE IN THE 14TH CENTURY Bubonic plague is one of the most devastating diseases in history, having killed around 100million people during the 'Black Death' in the 14th century. Drawings and paintings from the outbreak, which wiped out about a third of the European population, depict town criers saying 'bring out your dead' while dragging trailers piled with infected corpses. It is caused by a bacterium known as Yersinia pestis, which uses the flea as a host and is usually transmitted to humans via rats. The disease causes grotesque symptoms such as gangrene and the appearance of large swellings on the groin, armpits or neck, known as 'buboes'. It kills up to two thirds of sufferers within just four days if it is not treated, although if antibiotics are administered within 24 hours of infection patients are highly likely to survive. After the Black Death arrived in 1347 plague became a common phenomenon in Europe, with outbreaks recurring regularly until the 18th century. Bubonic plague has almost completely vanished from the rich world, with 90 per cent of all cases now found in Africa. However, there have been a few non-fatal cases in the U.S. in recent years, while in August 2013 a 15-year-old boy died in Kyrgyzstan after eating a groundhog infected with the disease. Three months later, an outbreak in a Madagascan killed at least 20 people in a week. A year before 60 people died as a result of the infection, more than in any other country in the world. Outbreaks in China have been rare in recent years, and most have happened in remote rural areas of the west. China's state broadcaster said there were 12 diagnosed cases and three deaths in the province of Qinghai in 2009, and one in Sichuan in 2012. In the United States between five and 15 people die every year as a result, mostly in western states.
This is horrifying. Most of us associate this disease with the Middle Ages and aren't at all aware that it has never fully gone away.
It's horrible. People put themselves in danger and not only themselves, their countries. The humanity has been fighting it for so long)