The entire rally from March on could turn out to simply be a dead cat bounce (which is a specific type of bear market rally usually found in stocks). They occur because buyers perceive a market that has plunged a lot in a short peroid of time as cheap (even if the fundamentals say otherwise). This happened to CROX several times in 2008 (for a good example). The gap in Oct could form an area of resistance causing a turning point in the rally. If the gap is not cleared to the upside, this is VERY bearish.